Paper suggests a decrease of tropical cyclones ahead

More inconvenient results for Al Gore and the mouthpiece of “Forecast the Facts” Brad Johnson who like to claim that tropical storms will increase due to global warming. A paper published last week in the Journal of Climate projects a 3-15% decrease of tropical cyclones throughout the 21st century, which seems to be inline with…

Tropical Storm Andrea Tracking

TS Andrea, the first named Atlantic storm of the season continues to organize, but so far has only maximum sustained winds of ~60mph. Florida will get quite a bit of rain in addition to winds. The real issue will be what happens after it crosses the Florida peninsula and re-emerges in the Atlantic. Right now…

Another glitch on the NCDC State of the Climate report

Is NOAA Misleading the Public by Including Tropical Cyclones in its 2012 Climate Extremes Index Ranking? by Bob Tisdale IF NOT, THE PRESS AND PUBLIC WILL CERTAINLY GET THE WRONG IDEA The Summary Information of the NOAA State of the Climate report reads with respect to extremes: The U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was…

NOAA: ‘2012 was an active [hurricane] year, but not exceptionally so …10 busier years in the last three decades’

NOTE: see video below, where you can watch the entire 2012 hurricane season on satellite time-lapse, way cool. – Anthony Busy 2012 hurricane season continues decades-long high activity era in the Atlantic Four U.S. land-falling storms include devastating Sandy and Isaac November 30 marks the end of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season, one that produced…

Crowdsourcing the WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page

(Photo credits: NOAA) By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” Your help is needed in building the new WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page. My recent article A Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature” – “Extreme Weather” Update appears to have struck a cord with some of our Warmist friends, as I earned an “Extreme Denial” label…

Helping Bloomberg understand ‘stupid’

This cover today is making the rounds in the alarmosphere, where a single storm, a single data point in the hundreds of hurricanes that have struck the USA during its history, is now apparently “proof” of global warming causing bad weather. It is just another silly example of Tabloid Climatology™. Hurricane expert Dr. Roger Pielke…

Let’s hope this forecast for Hurricane Sandy is wrong

This model run (ECMWF) has Hurricane Sandy making a near bulls-eye on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some impact on Norfolk, Washington, and Baltimore. It has some (but not all) of the components of the devastating 1954 Hurricane Hazel, which has a few folks worried. The good news is that the National Hurricane…

Dueling papers on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Who to believe? One paper/press release says TC’s are occurring more frequently, another says they aren’t. I tend to believe the latter, because there seems to be more supporting data from other sources for it, such as Dr. Ryan Maue’s tropical cyclone research. See below. First, from the University of Copenhagen Tropical cyclones are occurring…

Texas A&M says freshwater hurricanes grow stronger

From Texas A&M University , a claim that fresh water intensifies hurricanes. At first blush, the concept seems wonky to me, as I don’t think there’s much difference between the heat content potential of fresh -vs- saltwater. Though, it might simply be that freshwater deltas have higher temperature of outflowing water to start with, exacerbated…

WUWT gets results

Readers may recall yesterday that I posted this story : As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”. This was from the FSU press release at Eurekalert here which headlines “Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one” also backed up by this Google…

* As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”

*UPDATE: FSU has made a change, the press agent writes to me with this update: The lead researcher on the hurricane forecast has requested a change to the headline to make it clearer, and I have made that change to the release posted on EurekAlert. http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-05/fsu-hsi053112.php The preferred headline is “Hurricane season is here, and…

FEMA loses the global warming plot on hurricanes

From the we’ve been telling you so department, comes this honest briefing to the White House: (CNSNews.com) – Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate said the frequency of tornadoes and hurricanes is cyclical, and he doesn’t know if global warming has anything to do with it.

Klotzbach and Gray 2012 forecast – cooler Atlantic – fewer hurricanes

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012 We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this…

Don’t sell your coat!

This guest post is well worth a read – Anthony Guest post by Harold Ambler What follows is an excerpt from my new book Don’t Sell Your Coat, available here: I want to examine the moral component of meteorological journalism. As I mentioned near the beginning of this book, I used to be an avid watcher…

“Very wet rain events” from tropical cyclones linked to earthquakes

From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science , an interesting groundbreaking paper, ahem…but, wait for it, we’ll soon hear “Climate disruption causes more hurricanes and those cause more earthquakes” from the Rommists and McKibbenites. Research study shows link between earthquakes and tropical cyclones New study may help scientists identify regions…

Hurricane Kenneth forms southwest of Baja

Late season Hurricane Kenneth forms in the eastern Pacific Click image above to animate the most current loop The hurricane season in the eastern Pacific isn’t over and Hurricane Kenneth serves as a reminder that the season ends November 30. NASA satellite imagery shows Kenneth more organized than it appeared on Sunday, Nov. 20 and…

Getting GRLed

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. recently submitted this paper to Geophysical Research Letters (GRL): A homogeneous database of global landfalling tropical cyclones Jessica Weinkle* and Roger Pielke, Jr. Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado, 1333 Grandview Ave, Campus Box 488, Boulder, Colorado 80309 Abstract In recent decades, economic damage from tropical cyclones…

Global hurricane activity at historical record lows: new paper

During the past 6-years since Hurricane Katrina, global tropical cyclone frequency and energy have decreased dramatically, and are currently at near-historical record lows.  According to a new peer-reviewed research paper accepted to be published, only 69 tropical storms were observed globally during 2010, the fewest in almost 40-years of reliable records. Furthermore, when each storm’s…

Hurricane season starts today

From NASA Goddard- Atlantic hurricane season sticks to the calendar: System 93L NOTE: I’ve posted the most current image below, the system has already crossed the Florida peninsula and is now in the Gulf of Mexico – Anthony Hurricane season starts today, June 1, in the Atlantic Ocean and the tropics are paying attention to…

Joe Bastardi’s hurricane season

The Hurricane Season ( a rehash of what I have had so far) By Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell I see Dr Mann has a forecast out for 16 storms plus or minus 4, NOAA is out with theirs tomorrow. It is interesting to note that my friend, competitor ( he is a consultant for a rival…

Mann’s hurricane season predictions

Hockey team science wonk Dr. Michael Mann has released his hurricane predictions, just in time to pre-empt NOAA’s planned release of their forecast ,Thursday, May 19, 2011 – 11:30 a.m. ET. ESSC Scientists make prediction for 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season ESSC Scientist Michael Mann and researcher Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the…

Snowzilla and the Yeti Yasi

We have Snowzilla in the USA… …and Yasi in Oz. Crikey! Look at the size of this thing a day ago: Jo Nova has a size comparison for the present. To give you some idea of just how expansive Yasi is, look at the size of it compared to the continental USA, and the UK…

Global tropical cyclone activity still in the tank

Even with the expected active 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season, which accounts on average for about 1/5 of global annual hurricane output, the rest of the global tropics has been historically quiet.  The Western North Pacific this year has seen 8-Typhoons, the fewest in at least 65-years of records.  Closer to the US mainland, the…