Correlation Between NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis and Other Global Temperature Anomaly Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes On his website, Nick Stokes has set up an interesting global temperature anomaly visualization, based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data. The dry technical details are listed in this blog post. Based on his explanation, I’ve been able to closely duplicate his work to within +/-0.003 Kelvin degree, using different tools. This post…

The Warmer The Icier

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach A WUWT commenter emailed me with a curious claim. I have described various emergent phenomena that regulate the surface temperature. These operate on time scales ranging from minutes to hours (e.g. dust devils, thunderstorms) to multi-decadal (e.g. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation). He suggested that there is also a…

Is NOAA’s Hiatus Gone? (Now Includes May Data)

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts: The above are plots of what the slopes NOAA’s surface temperature anomalies look like for the three intervals 1975 to 2000; 1950 to 2000; and 2000 to 2015. The top one is before adjustments and the bottom one is after adjustments, seemingly in an attempt…

Temperature and TOA Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing. TOA forcing is the imbalance between the TOA upwelling and downwelling radiation. The CERES satellite dataset contains observations of the TOA radiation imbalance on a gridcell-by-gridcell basis. It is calculated as the downwelling solar radiation for that month by gridcell, minus…

Le Chatelier And Climate Change (Now Includes March Data)

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts: Lubos Motl has an excellent article entitled: “Le Chatelier’s principle and nature’s adaptation” If this topic interests you, I would highly recommend that you read it. “Le Châtelier’s principle can be stated as: When a system at equilibrium is subjected to change in concentration, temperature, volume, or pressure,…

A First Look At SURFRAD

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Since the late Nineties the US has had seven industrial-strength stations that measure a variety of climate variables every minute, 24/7. These are called “SURFRAD” stations. As a data junkie I’ve been wanting to look at their results for a while … but the data is in an ugly format. They have…

GISS Hockey-Stick Adjustments

Guest Post By Walter Dnes: There have been various comments recently about GISS’ “dancing data”, and it just so happens that as GISS data is updated monthly, I’ve been downloading it monthly since 2008. In addition, I’ve captured some older versions via “The Wayback Machine“. Between those 2 sources, I have 94 monthly downloads between…

The Slow Fourier Transform (SFT)

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach While investigating the question of cycles in climate datasets (Part 1, Part 2), I invented a method I called “sinusoidal periodicity”. What I did was to fit a sine wave of various periods to the data, and record the amplitude of the best fit. I figured it had been invented…

Lakes For Sale, Partially Thawed, N=20

Guest Post By Willis Eschenbach Anthony pointed out the selling of overhyped claims of the “dramatic thinning” of Arctic ice here. The title of the underlying scientific study is much more prosaic, Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska to contemporary climate conditions (1950–2011): radar remote-sensing and numerical modeling…

Claim: November 2013 is the ‘warmest ever’ – but will the real November 2013 temperature please stand up?

Lots of clima-hullaballo this week in the media thanks NOAA and this announcement in NOAA’s “State of the Climate” report seen here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/ They state: The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for November 2013 was record highest for the 134-year period of record, at 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average…

‘Twas the nightmare before Christmas

By Joe Bastardi ‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the news, There were reports of record cold, so many were confused. Told global warming is why we should care, And that the point of no return would soon be here. The children were bombarded with tales of dread, While visions of climate disasters…

Whither went the warmer weather?

17 years, 3 months with no global warming By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The Long Pause just got three months longer. Last month, the RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies showed no global warming for exactly 204 months – the first dataset to show the full 17 years without warming specified by Santer as…

UAH October temperatures, part 2

Note that the original October report on WUWT from a press release issued accidentally by UAH is superseded by this report. – Anthony UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for October, 2013: +0.29 deg. C By Dr. Roy Spencer We finally received the missing NOAA-19 and Metop2 AMSU data from NESDIS, resulting from the government shutdown,…

An impartial look at global warming…

Guest essay by M.S.Hodgart (Visiting Reader Surrey Space Centre University of Surrey) The figure presented here is a new graph of the story of global warming – and cooling. The graph makes no predictions and should be used only to see what has been happening historically. The boxed points in the figure are the ‘raw…

More low climate sensitivity

This paper A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series from Skeie et al is now in open peer review at Earth System Dynamics. They say an ECS of 1.84 See Figure E2 from the paper.

The early chill in the Arctic continues

Temperature above 80 degrees north drops below freezing early, and continues to drop. Many people have been watching the remarkable early drop in air temperature at the DMI plot here: This drop looks to be about two weeks early. As this next analysis of sea surface temperature shows, much of the area is below freezing.…

About that ‘warmer temperatures increase violence’ claim…real world crime data doesn’t support it

Readers surely recall the wild claim yesterday made by researchers from Princeton University and the University of California-Berkeley who reported in the journal Science that even slight spikes in temperature and precipitation have greatly increased the risk of personal violence and social upheaval throughout human history: Claim: 2°C temperature increase will make people angry Dr.…

NASA predicts 8 degrees of warming in the US by 2100

For the National Climate Assessment NASA has produced a model-based prediction of eight degrees Fahrenheit for the continental US by 2100 as the most likely scenario Story submitted by Ben Bakker NASA scientists have created a video showing predicted dramatic heating of the continental US between now and the year 2100.  The video and prediction…

Australia’s average temperature

Are Australians heading for the cooker? Guest essay by Bill Johnston Elections for Australia’s National (Federal) parliament are looming and carbon tax is a battleground issue. The incumbent Labour Party have proposed to transition its existing toxic carbon tax to an emissions trading scheme, linked to that in Europe, a year earlier than planned. Supposedly…

I need help with a graph search

In the last week, I came across a graph on a climate skeptic website that showed the earth’s average temperature in F, the known variation of temperature on earth, and the rise of temperature over the last 100 years depicted all in 1 graph. The small rise in surface temperature was depicted as a thin…

UAH global temperature, up somewhat

UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for June, 2013: +0.30 deg. C by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. After 10 days in Michigan’s U.P. for my 40th high school reunion, here’s the belated monthly global temperature update. We added two satellites to the processing, Metop-A starting in 2007 and NOAA-19 starting in 2009.

It seems NOAA has ‘de-modernized’ the official Death Valley station to use older equipment to make a record more likely

About those ‘record’ Death Valley temperatures everybody is waiting for… UPDATE: 128°F today at Death Valley COOP station. See Record Event Report below. It seems the media and the alarmists are cheering on the possibility of an all-time temperature record in Death Valley. There’s lots of hullabaloo over the supposedly tied all time temperature record…

Hottest weather of the season likely coming

Model output from WeatherBell added by Anthony By Steve Pierce, AMS chapter president, Oregon Portland, Oregon (June 25th 2013) –  “The hottest weather of the season is likely on the way for the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend, and it could get even hotter next week. In fact, the entire western half of the country…

A data review to supplement the UK Met Office ‘Disappointing Weather Meeting’

A graphical review of 14.5 years disappointing UK weather Guest essay by Neil Catto A meeting today (18th March 2013) took place at the UK Met Office HQ in Exeter. See the report here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/meeting-unusual-seasons It was arranged to include the best climatologists and meteorologists to gain better understanding of the ‘disappointing UK weather over…