California’s new toilet police

Last Thursday in my local newspaper The Chico Enterprise-Record there was an editorial about saving water through bureaucracy: Editorial: Toilet police don’t want job. It was was of those “only in California” type things about a new law with good intentions, but eye rolling implementation that only policy wonks could dream up. I agreed with…

Statistical proof of ‘the pause’ – Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

Commentary from Nature Climate Change, by John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett, & Francis W. Zwiers Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability. Global mean surface temperature over the past…

Another paper blames ENSO for global warming pause, calling it ‘… a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.’

UPDATE: Chris de Freitas responds to comments with an addendum below – Anthony Readers may recall the recent paper that blamed “the pause” in global temperature on ENSO changes in the Pacific Ocean. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie Nature (2013) doi:10.1038/nature12534 Dr. Judith Curry called the…

NOAA’s Ever-Changing Definition of La Niña Years

UPDATE: I’ve added two illustrations to the end of the post. At the request of blogger “Kurt in Switzerland”, I plotted a comparison of the new and old versions of the Oceanic NINO Index data and posted it in a comment. I also plotted the difference, which is much more interesting. Both graphs have been…

Dr. Roy Spencer’s Sea Surface Temperatures

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Roy Spencer’s excellent web site, Dr. Roy has a post up showing a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly calculated from AMSR-E, TMI, and WindSat. Here’s his post of the results: Figure 1. Global Microwave Sea Surface Temperature Update for Feb. 2013: -0.01 deg. C Regarding these results, Dr.…

New paper from NOAA demonstrates that El Niño has more impacts than climate on winter weather in the USA

While AP’s Seth Borenstein cites opinions of activist scientists in erroneously claiming that ‘climate change’  increasing atmospheric moisture is the main driver for winter weather events, it turns out that El Niño patterns are strongly associated with winter weather impacts. – Anthony NOAA research finds new way to identify which El Niño events will have…

New video from Bob Tisdale explains The Impact of Manmade Global Warming on a Blizzard Called Nemo and on Hurricane Sandy

Guest post by Bob Tisdale The following video is an examination and discussion of the sea surface temperature data associated with the recent blizzard called Nemo, and with hurricane Sandy. There’s nothing unusual about those temperatures, and there’s no evidence of manmade global warming in that data. There is also a very brief discussion at…

Bob Tisdale shows how ‘Forecast the Facts” Brad Johnson (and now Dr. Heidi Cullen) are fecklessly factless about ocean warming and the blizzard

UPDATE2: Gosh. Shouldn’t Dr. Cullen know more than McKibben and Brad Johnson?!  (h/t to Marc Morano) – Anthony Here’s the SST anomaly map she cites as proof in her post about the issue at Climate Central. Note that actual temperatures in the ocean are quite cold. Dear Chicken Little: The Sky Is Falling (It’s Snowing)…

Emergent Climate Phenomena

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a recent post, I described how the El Nino/La Nina alteration operates as a giant pump. Whenever the Pacific Ocean gets too warm across its surface, the Nino/Nina pump kicks in and removes the warm water from the Pacific, pumping it first west and thence poleward. I also wrote…

New ebook: The Manmade Global Warming Challenge

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION Many bloggers are very active in the climate change debate around the globe. In advance of an expected intensification of that debate this year, I’ve written a new essay about the natural warming of the global oceans. It’s titled “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge”. That essay and an introduction…

The Tao of El Nino

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I was wandering through the graphics section of the TAO buoy data this evening. I noted that they have an outstanding animation of the most recent sixty months of tropical sea temperatures and surface heights. Go to their graphics page, click on “Animation”. Then click on “Animate”. When the new…

Global Temperature Updates – 2012

By Paul Homewood While Obama is imploring us to stop the global warming that is bringing us “the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms”, it would seem to be a good idea to see exactly what global temperatures have been doing in the last year. December Updates First, let’s…

Analysis shows tidal forcing is a major factor in ENSO forcing

ENSO forecast based on tidal forcing with an Artificial Neural Network Investigation submitted by Per Strandberg Here on this page, you are going to find evidence that tidal forcing is one of the most important, if not the most important driver for ENSO variations. That tidal forcing could be the main explanation for ENSO variations…

ENSO 2013 – Boy or Girl?

We’re Expecting: Will it be a Boy, a Girl, or ENSO-Neutral in 2013? by Bob Tisdale There was lots of interest in the short-lived El Niño conditions in 2012. Recently, they very quickly transformed into the present weak La Niña conditions. NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are right at NOAA’s -0.5 threshold for La Niña conditions.  I’ve…

Why El Niño and not the AMO?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global average surface temperature record. The theory, as I have heard it propounded, is that the temperature of the Earth is “signal”,…

NOAA Mixing Their Niños

Guest post by Paul Homewood In their attempts to disguise the fact that 2012 will likely turn out to be one of the colder years this century, NOAA have made the ludicrous, and frankly dishonest, claim that this year will be the “hottest La Niña” year on record. But is it a La Niña year?…

Dr. David Whitehouse on the AR5 figure 1.4

Dr. David Whitehouse of the GWPF expounds on the “prime statistic of global warming” graph and its failure, as first reported here. The Leaked AR5 Report And Global Temperature Whatever one’s view about the leaking of the draft IPCC AR5 report it does make fascinating reading, and given the public scrutiny it is now receiving…

Mythbusting Rahmstorf and Foster

Rahmstorf et al (2012) Insist on Prolonging a Myth about El Niño and La Niña Guest post by Bob Tisdale Anthony Watts of WattsUpWithThat forwarded a link to a newly published peer-reviewed paper by Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster (aka Tamino of the blog OpenMind) and Anny Cazenave. Thanks, Anthony. The title of the paper is Comparing…

An Inconvenient Truth: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies along Sandy’s Track Haven’t Warmed in 70+ Years

Guest post by Bob Tisdale I was visiting family in the Northeast U.S. when Sandy came ashore, so I was without power for most of last week. Since my return home, I’ve been catching up with all of the nonsense surrounding Hurricane/Extratropical Storm/Hybrid Storm Sandy. There have been hundreds of articles and blog posts that…

Fading El Niño complicates NOAA’s winter forecast

Press release:  Elusive El Niño challenges NOAA’s 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather…

Resolving the biases in century-scale sea surface temperature measurements reveals some interesting patterns

This new paper in GRL takes on the well-known buckets-vs-inlets issue (Steve McIntyre also visited the issue several times) related to ship based sea surface temperature measurements and as a result, produces an improved dataset. The results show a surprising period of warming, but not in the time period expected.  How would AGW advocates explain…

Tisdale’s September 2012 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Update

PRELIMINARY Guest Post by Bob Tisdale STANDARD OPENING PARAGRAPH The September 2012 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, September 8th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies…

Tisdales’ Blog Memo to Kevin Trenberth at NCAR

Guest post by Bob Tisdale Date:  September 20, 2012 Subject:  Trenberth and Fasullo (2012) paper “Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010” From:  Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations To:  Kevin Trenberth – National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Dear Kevin: First, let me congratulate you on…

Tisdale on the problems with ENSO models

Guilyardi et al (2009) “Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges” Guest post by Bob Tisdale The preliminary Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature data for July 2012 won’t be available until next Monday July 30th, and there haven’t been any changes in weekly NINO3.4 region or global sea surface temperature anomalies since…