The Laws of Averages: Part 3, The Average Average

  Guest Essay by Kip Hansen   This essay is the third and last in a series of essays about Averages — their use and misuse.  My interest is in the logical and scientific errors, the informational errors, that can result from what I have playfully coined “The Laws of Averages”. Averages As both the…

New paper: climate models short on ‘physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system’

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1 The lead…

A hilarious view of Climategate I’ve never read before

Scientific understanding and faith simultaneously on display:  ‘For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable “sign” of anthropogenic warming has assumed an almost Biblical intensity.’ – Fred Pearce, New Scientist, October 1996 This being near Climategate time, it is worth reflecting upon that heady time in late November 2009 when the world of climate science saw…

Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat

‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from the UK Met Office led by Doug Smith wrote a paper “Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model”, published…

September doldrums – solar slump continues

While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this: Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be…

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users…

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with time? Graph above by Dr. Roy Spencer Increasing mathematical uncertainty from initial starting conditions is…

Two years to a 1740-type event?

Guest essay by David Archibald Wiggle-matching has been used by the best. Hubert Lamb, considered to be the most meticulous climatologist of all time, used wiggle-matching in this wind data graph he published in 1988: He had plotted up 600 years of wind data at London, noted a 200 year periodicity and copied the line…

Quite possibly the dumbest example of ‘Tabloid Climatology’ ever from Climate Central’s Andrew Freedman

Andrew Freedman writes in this Tabloid Climatology™ piece at Climate Central: When Hurricane Sandy struck New York City on October 29, 2012, the dark waters of Flushing Bay poured over the edges of LaGuardia Airport, flooding parts of the facility’s 7,000-foot long east-west runway, and damaging lighting and navigation systems. The floodwaters created an eerie…

Curry and Lomborg in house committee today – webcast live

UPDATE: Dr. Judith Curry’s transcript of her verbal testimaony is online here: http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/25/congressional-hearing-on-policy-relevant-climate-issues-in-context/ Skeptics outnumber alarmists at House of Representatives session today Subcommittee on Environment Hearing – Policy Relevant Climate Issues in Context Subcommittee on Environment | 2318 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515 | Apr 25, 2013 10:00am Policy Relevant Climate Issues in…

When Alaska Was Cold

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Temperatures are generally referred to some kind of long-term, often 30-year average. This is called the “climatology”, meaning the long-term average values of various climate variables. For up-to-date analyses, the period of time is usually taken as being the thirty years from 1981-2010. For Alaska, the usual measure for the…

Challenging the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

Consensus does not necessarily guarantee sound science Guest post by Forrest M. Mims III Consensus is often cited in support of scientific paradigms, including anthropogenic climate change. Australian physicist Tom Quirk has neatly dissected the consensus argument for the human role in climate change in an article in Quadrant Online entitled “Of climate science and…

German “mad scientist” wants to rule the world…

Hmmm, sounds like a bad “B” movie plot. From Pierre Gosselin at No Tricks Zone: Why German Prof. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber & Co. Will Become The Object Of Ridicule For Future Generations (…) Any fan of Hollywood films following the climate debate knows the objectives of mad scientists: They try to rule the world. With his…

Keeping track of NOAA’s ENSO data changes

The NOAA Weekly ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Indices Webpage Has Changed Location By Bob Tisdale There has been concern expressed recently around the blogosphere that NOAA hasn’t updated their weekly El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature-based indices webpage since May 16, 2012. I use the NOAA NOMADS website (alternate NOAA computer here) for my sea…

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas, the search path of a foraging animal, the price of a fluctuating stock…

Gavin Schmidt talk at URI

WUWT reader Gary writes in with this: Gavin Schmidt gave a lecture at my University yesterday and I thought you might like to see it. He starts at 21 minutes into the clip. The Metcalf Institute seeks to communicate science to the public. It was a pedestrian talk for an educated public audience and used…

New branch of science coined on WUWT

While we wait for Nick Stokes and David Appell to work up excuses for their embracing the “climate scientists get death threats” fiasco, I thought I’d share this spinoff of this short passage I wrote yesterday: Likewise, blogger/scientist Nick Stokes, who fancies himself as being cool and methodical, was completely taken in, and like Appell,…

The Minnesota “drought flood”

Guest post by Scott Gates Much as with the UK – where their “drought” is demonstrated by severe flooding … in Minnesota it is much the same. The government forecasters (NOAA)  claims we’re in a long term moderate to severe drought ……… LINK HERE  – pic Here: …. the REALITY is far different … LINK…

NSIDC fixes their Arctic Sea Ice graphing problem

As I mentioned yesterday, NSIDC had an oops moment, but with the help of skeptical blogs, was notified of the problem and responded timely and appropriately. They posted this update today: Update, April 19, 2012: The nine-day trailing average climatology on the daily data graph has been changed to a five-day trailing average, to be…

Cambridge professor Michael Kelly on “deniers” and climate change: “science has been consistently over-egged to produce alarm.”

UPDATE: 9:50AM 2/28 Professor Kelly responds in comments. It seems the Times saw fit to remove an important portion of his first paragraph. I’ve highlighted the missing text in red. Gobsmacking that they couldn’t handle this one sentence but left the rest untouched – Anthony M J Kelly Submitted on 2012/02/28 at 9:13 am If…

Peter Gleick lecturing the U.S. Senate on “deceitful tactics”

“Copner” alerts us in comments to this public document: Testimony of Dr. Peter Gleick, February 7, 2007 Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Table 1 Categories of Deceitful Tactics and Abuse of the Scientific Process (source: P.H. Gleick, Pacific Institute, 2007) There are many tactics used to argue for or against scientific conclusions that are inappropriate,…

Not quite Friday Funny– “Fakegate”

Josh from CartoonsbyJosh.com writes: Another ‘Gate’ – but this one turned round and bit the owner. Leo Hickman and co at the Guardian thought they had a bona fide leak of incriminating information on the funding of climate skeptics by the Heartland Institute. Two problems, the funding turns out to be rather small beer, especially…

Cites and Signs of the times

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been involved in climate science for a while now, this is not my first rodeo. And I’ve read so many pseudo-scientific studies that I’m starting to develop a list of signs that indicate when all is not well with a particular piece of work. One sign is whether, how,…

Quote of the week – always happy to help

At WUWT, one thing we pride ourselves in is helping visitors learn about the issues and the science, even if those visitors should already know what these things mean. Take for example, Michael Tobis proprietor of “Only In it for the Gold” and “Planet3.0”, both heavily pro-warming sites. Readers may remember Mr. Tobis from his…

Comparing climate skepticism to “creationism” in the classroom

Alternate title: Science education gets Gleicked From AAAS: “Is climate change education the new evolution, threatened in U.S. school districts and state education standards by well-organized interest groups? A growing number of education advocates believe so, and yesterday, the National Center for Science Education in Oakland, California, which fights the teaching of creationism, announced that…

Getting the year off to a good start

It always helps to review the topics discussed here, as doing so always provides an educational opportunity for everyone. Given we are starting a whole new year of bringing the science to people who have doubts about the veracity of some claims in climate science, this seemed like a good opportunity to run this excellent…

Shocker – Ken Caldeira resigns as IPCC AR5 lead author

(via Tom Nelson) Ken Caldeira resigns as IPCC lead author, saying: “…it is not clear how much additional benefit there is to having a huge bureaucratic scientific review effort under UN auspices…” New Directions for the Intergovernmental Climate Panel – NYTimes.com Clearly, at the outset, the early IPCC reports played an important role showing that…

Two separate examples show 2007 NRC review panel was stacked, except for a “token” skeptic and worked to supress dissenting science

This is pretty ugly. In 2007 the NRC was setup to review the state of climate science. The usual players were involved. Today we have two separate examples of inappropriate behavior designed to squash any scientific dissent. First from Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. in this essay: An E-Mail Communication Between Phil Jones and Ben Santer…

“…somebody had to say it”

Dr. Judith Curry writes about the UCAR meeting she attended: Some insight into the dynamics that resulted in a substantial change in emphasis in climate research is provided by a meeting that I attended earlier this week in Boulder:  the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Annual Members Meeting.  An overview of UCAR is provided…

Alarmist climate science and the principle of exclusion

AGW theorists are being misled by the principle of exclusion Story submitted by Paul Macrae In 1837, Charles Darwin presented a paper to the British Geological Society arguing that coral atolls were formed not on submerged volcanic craters, as argued by pioneering geologist Charles Lyell, but on the subsidence of mountain chains. The problem, as…

Monday Mirthiness

Josh last week came up with his own science kit as he was inspired by the chemistry set with no chemicals I posted on. Bishop Hill posted that original, but I thought we needed to see what is inside the box, and Josh happily obliged. I give you the home Climate Science Kit for inquiring…

UHI, this is London

Since BEST claims they will work to take UHI into consideration, it seems worthwhile to highlight this new paper. Guess who’s a co-author? Phil Jones of UEA’s CRU. Image above from Arizona State, Center for Environmental Science Applications (CESA). From Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.: New Paper “Decadal Variations In The Nocturnal Heat Island Of London”…