A Tale Of Two Convergences

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the course of doing the research for my previous post on thunderstorm evaporation, I came across something I’d read about but never had seen. This was the claim that the models showed not one, but two inter-tropical convergence zones (ITCZ). Please allow me a small digression here, regarding my…

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally by Dr. Patrick Michaels to include this new ECS value and range. – Anthony NEW…

Climate Craziness of the Week: only the ‘cooler’ models are wrong – the rest say 4ºC of warming by 2100

From the University of New South Wales and Dr. Steven Sherwood: “Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect,” said Sherwood. “But what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by the models which predict less warming, not…

Climate models – worse than we thought

Observations Now Inconsistent with Climate Model Predictions for 25 (going on 35) Years By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Question: How long will the fantasy that climate models are reliable indicators of the earth’s climate evolution persist in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary? Answer: Probably for as long as there…

A Sea Change for Climate Science?

By David Stockwell writing in Quadrant Online As CO2 climate models falter and even the IPCC backs off its estimates, it just may be that a radical shift in thinking is looming. Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the sun all along? Remember Thomas Kuhn and his paradigm shift?  According to his Structure of…

Epic Failure of the Canadian Climate Model

Guest Essay by: Ken Gregory The Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia submitted five runs of its climate model CanESM2 for use in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate model produces one of the most extreme warming…

90 climate model projectons versus reality

Reality wins, it seems. Dr Roy Spencer writes: As seen in the following graphic, over the period of the satellite record (1979-2012), both the surface and satellite observations produce linear temperature trends which are below 87 of the 90 climate models used in the comparison.

Gatekeeping at Geophysical Research Letters

Dr. Judith Curry writes: As the IPCC struggles with its inconvenient truth – the pause and the growing discrepancy between models and observations – the obvious question is: why is the IPCC just starting to grapple with this issue now, essentially two minutes before midnite of the release of the AR5? … My blog post…

National Academy of Sciences: climate models still ‘decades away’ from being useful

From the National Academy of Sciences report A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling: Computer models that simulate the climate are an integral part of providing climate information, in particular for future changes in the climate. Overall, climate modeling has made enormous progress in the past several decades, but meeting the information needs of users…

Statistical proof of ‘the pause’ – Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

Commentary from Nature Climate Change, by John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett, & Francis W. Zwiers Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability. Global mean surface temperature over the past…

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why there is broad disagreement in the output that increases with time? Graph above by Dr. Roy Spencer Increasing mathematical uncertainty from initial starting conditions is…

Eos: let’s get the bankers and the climate modelers talking, but will the bankers be too realistic?

From Eos June 11, 2013, PAGE 215, comes a recommendation that the finance community and climate scientists work together. One wonders though, if people in the results driven financial world will soon realize that the climate models just aren’t performing, and drop such collaborations like yesterday’s bad stock tip. Collaboration Urged for Climate Science and…

More climate models FAIL – A chink in the armor at Science?

People send me stuff. Lance Wallace writes: Anthony, this short “Perspectives” report in Science seems to me to be worthy of a posting in WUWT. Not only is it a very clear indication of crucial problems with the GCMs, it appears in Science magazine, for years a dogged defender of the faith. I’m including the…

Anti-information in climate models

Climate History: Cato Boffins Discovered “Anti-information” By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger While doing some historical studies in preparation for an article in Cato’s Regulation magazine, we found that we  once discovered the information equivalent of antimatter, namely, “anti-information”. This breakthrough came  when we were reviewing the first “National Assessment” of climate…

Are regional models ready for prime time?

Guest post by Marcel Crok A few months ago we  made the launch of the international discussion platform . This week we start the third dialogue about the (added) value of regional climate models. We have three excellent participants joining this discussion: Bart van den Hurk of KNMI in The Netherlands who is actively involved…

Climate models getting worse than we thought

New paper finds climate models are getting worse rather than better Via the Hockey Schtick: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the latest climate models are performing even worse than the earlier generations of climate models in predicting “…both the mean surface air temperature as well as the frequency of extreme…

Climate models fail to ‘predict’ US droughts

Story submitted by WUWT reader “Clyde” Simulations identify past megadroughts, but at wrong times. “This would be a fine country if it only had water,” observes a settler looking at the barren west Texas plains. “So would Hell,” replies a despairing farmer. That old Texas joke probably originated in the 1950s, when the state was…

Michael Mann says climate models cannot explain the Medieval Warming Period – I say they can’t even explain the present

Ice core data shows CO2 levels changed less than 10 parts per million from 1600-1800 during the MWP. From the Hockey Schtick:  A new paper from Schurer et al (with Mann as co-author) finds that climate “models cannot explain the warm conditions around 1000 [years before the present, during the Medieval Warming Period] seen in some…

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my annotations) is “Are you kidding?” HANSEN’S SCENARIOS The three scenarios and their predictions are defined…

IPCC Chapter 11 – Bankruptcy Protection

Guest post by David M. Hoffer IPCC reports AR1 through 4 were published in relative obscurity. ClimateGate and the emergence of the blogosphere as the primary forum for debate of the science and public policy intersection changed all that. AR4 in particular has been put under the microscope, and thoroughly discredited. It was laced with…

Trenberth dials up the warming predictions

From NCAR: Future warming likely to be on high side of climate projections, analysis finds November 08, 2012 BOULDER—Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, according to a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).…

Scientific consensus revisited

Guest post by Juraj Vanovcan “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– As of today, climate models are the last realm where rise of trace concentration of carbon dioxide, vital…

Climate lab in a container on the high seas

From the Brookhaven National Laboratory: Yearlong MAGIC Climate Study Launches Climate instruments mounted aboard the Horizon Spirit container ship begin taking data The Horizon Spirit makes the round trip between Los Angeles and Hawaii every two weeks. UPTON, NY — A Horizon Lines container ship outfitted with meteorological and atmospheric instruments installed by U.S. Department of…

Climate Models shown to be inaccurate less than 30 years out

From the University of Arizona (h/t to WUWT reader Miguel Rakiewicz): A new study has found that climate-prediction models are good at predicting long-term climate patterns on a global scale but lose their edge when applied to time frames shorter than three decades and on sub-continental scales. Climate-prediction models show skills in forecasting climate trends…

Volcanic Corroboration

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Back in 2010, I wrote a post called “Prediction is hard, especially of the future“. It turned out to be the first of a series of posts that I ended up writing on the inability of climate models to successfully replicate the effects of volcanoes. It was an investigation occasioned…

AR5 Climate Forecasts: What to Believe

Guest post by Pat Frank The summary of results from version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has come out. [1] CMIP5 is evaluating the state-of-the-art general circulation climate models (GCMs) that will be used in the IPCC’s forthcoming 5th Assessment Report (AR5) to project climate futures. The fidelity of these models will…

Important New Paper on the Nocturnal Boundary Layer, Mixing, and Radiative Forcing as it applies to GHCN weather stations

From Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. comes word of an important new paper that shows how the air near the ground (boundary layer) is highly affected by sensitive nighttime dynamics, which show up in the Tmin of weather station data (GHCN stations in this case)  but are not captured by climate models. The paper also showed…

The Very Model Of A Modern Major Problem

Reposted from The GWPF by Dr. David Whitehouse There has been some discussion about a paper in Nature Climate Change by Gleckler et al that says they detect “a positive identification (at the 1% level) of an anthropogenic fingerprint in the observed upper-ocean temperature changes, thereby substantially strengthening existing detection and attribution evidence.” What they’ve done…

Climate models outperformed by random walks

First, a bit of a primer. Wikipedia describes a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas, the search path of a foraging animal, the price of a fluctuating stock…

Gavin Schmidt talk at URI

WUWT reader Gary writes in with this: Gavin Schmidt gave a lecture at my University yesterday and I thought you might like to see it. He starts at 21 minutes into the clip. The Metcalf Institute seeks to communicate science to the public. It was a pedestrian talk for an educated public audience and used…

Modeling in the red

From an Ohio State University press release where they see a lot of red, and little else, yet another warm certainty model: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PROJECTS FUTURE TEMPERATURES IN NORTH AMERICA COLUMBUS, Ohio – For the first time, researchers have been able to combine different climate models using spatial statistics – to project future seasonal temperature…