Repeated Trials, Autocorrelation, and Albedo

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach OK, quick gambler’s question. Suppose I flip seven coins in the air at once and they all seven come up heads. Are the coins loaded? Near as I can tell, statistics was invented by gamblers to answer this type of question. The seven coins are independent events. If they are…

Southern Sea Ice Area Minimum 2nd Highest on Record

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area reached a minimum of 2.447 Million Sq km on February 23rd, 2014, which exceeded the prior 2nd highest minimum of 2.423 Million Sq km that occurred on February 22nd, 2013. The highest recorded Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area minimum remains 2.473 Million Sq km, which occurred on…

Now that the ‘Ship of Fools’ is safe in Antarctica, tough questions need to be asked

UPDATE: Perhaps the headline was premature, the latest SITREP from the rescue ship Aurora Australis indicates they are having some trouble getting into open water. UPDATE2: It seems the cause of getting stuck was nothing more than dawdling while sightseeing. Since the Guardian reporters shown above probably won’t do anything but complain about beds and…

Newsbytes: Ship Of Fools Rescued At Last

 An Icy Blast Of Scepticism Greets Climate Expedition Rescuers in Antarctica have safely transferred all 52 passengers stranded on the ice-bound research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy. The Shokalskiy has been trapped since Christmas Eve. Its 22 crew are expected to remain on board to wait until the vessel becomes free. The ice-bound research vessel has been…

The Antarctic ‘research’ fiasco – ‘would you, could you, in a boat’?

This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep.  See update 2 below. UPDATE3: see WUWT and Weatherbell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped…

IPCC’s Report on Climate Change: Myths & Realities

A World Meteorological Organization insider’s view of the IPCC report. Guest essay by Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN [A note to readers: English is not Dr. Reddy’s primary language. I have made some edits to his original manuscript for clarity, but some readers may find the writing style a bit…

Lakes discovered beneath Greenland ice sheet

From the University of Cambridge The subglacial lakes are the first to be identified in Greenland The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, discovered two subglacial lakes 800 metres below the Greenland Ice Sheet. The two lakes are each roughly 8-10 km2, and at one point may have been up to three times larger than…

On data losses -vs- geography in Cowtan and Way 2013: data dropout may account for most of the recent observed differences

At Climate Audit, Roman M. has a very interesting analysis that shows the surface grid cell losses from HadCRUT4 in C&W. It hones in on the issue of why the temperature differences from 2005 are much more significant than the earlier part of the record. Data loss seems to be recently seasonally large, especially in…

Tough Times For Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts…

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group By WUWT Regular Just The Facts In previous years there was reason to cheer, .e.g. “Transport is steaming full speed ahead.” “Some serious ice transport going on there. If this keeps up…” Neven, “Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia”,…

New study: Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet melt may be natural event, no consensus on cause

Ice sheets are the largest potential source of future sea level rise – and they also possess the largest uncertainty over their future behaviour From the University of Bristol Continuous satellite monitoring of ice sheets needed to better predict sea-level rise The findings, published in Nature Geoscience, underscore the need for continuous satellite monitoring of…

Study says global warming caused by CFCs interacting with cosmic rays, not carbon dioxide

From the University of Waterloo, an extraordinary claim. While plausible, due to the fact that CFC’s have very high GWP numbers, their atmospheric concentrations compared to CO2 are quite low, and the radiative forcings they add are small by comparison to CO2. This may be nothing more than coincidental correlation. But, I have to admit,…

Nuccitelli gets a bruising by the factual hand of Monckton

Cook “the books” is wrong to slam Roy Spencer By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Anyone who has met Roy Spencer knows him to be a careful, thoughtful, unpolemical scientist of formidable skill and knowledge. With John Christy he presents the monthly real-world data from the microwave sounding unit satellites that provide the least inaccurate global…

Alice in Wonderland science

Our energy and environment deserve better – in South Africa and Qatar Guest post by Dr. Kelvin Kemm A few weeks ago, perhaps as a prologue to the “global warming disaster” convention in Doha, Qatar, South Africa’s Department of Environment Affairs took out a full-page advertisement in our country’s newspapers, promoting National Marine Week. The…

How GISS creates long term Antarctic warming

From Tallblokes Talkshop, note what happens before 1958. HOW GISS MANUFACTURES WARMING (LOTS OF IT) IN THE ANTARCTIC by Roger Andrews The close match between GISS and me after 1955 is encouraging in that it shows that there’s at least one corner of the Earth where GISS hasn’t seriously mutilated the raw data. But GISS…

A paper unifying cosmic ray interaction, CFC’s ozone, and warming

On Cosmic-Ray-Driven Electron Reaction Mechanism for Ozone Hole and Chlorofluorocarbon Mechanism for Global Climate Change Qing-Bin Lu, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Waterloo Abstract Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the cosmic-ray driven electron induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and…

Sea Ice News, Volume 3 Number 14 – Antarctic Sea ice near record high of 2007

While the Arctic recently set a new record low, lower than that of 2007, the Antarctic is at near record highs similar to that of 2007 according to University of Illinois Cryosphere Today data: Here are the values: 2007.7206 1.1396104 16.2323818 15.0927715 2012.7316 1.1447686 16.2041264 15.0593576 Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008 At NSIDC, they show extent at near…

NASA: Study Finds Ancient Warming Greened Antarctica

It seems Antarctica once had vegetation and had a lot of rain. This artist’s rendition created from a photograph of Antarctica shows what Antarctica possibly looked like during the middle Miocene epoch, based on pollen fossil data. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Dr. Philip Bart, LSU  › Full image and caption PASADENA, Calif. — A new university-led study…

Younger Dryas -The Rest of the Story!

WUWT readers may recall this recent story: New evidence of Younger Dryas extraterrestrial impact The story below provides much more detail about the Younger Dryas event and the split that has developed in the scientific community over the cause. I’ve added this graph below from NCDC to give readers a sense of time and magnitude of…

Tisdale on Polar Amplification

Polar Amplification: Observations versus IPCC Climate Models Guest post by Bob Tisdale We’ve illustrated and discussed polar amplification in a few posts in the past. See here and here. Wikipedia has a short blurb about it: Polar amplification is the greater temperature increases in the Arctic compared to the earth as a whole as a result…

Crack in the Antarctic!

From the University of Texas at Austin, a press release to tell us the ice shelves in the Antarctic peninsula are losing their grip and cracking a bit. That could be tragic, except, well, sea ice in Antarctica is growing. And, there’s only a 40 year historical context for these observations. I just can’t too…

Sea Ice News Volume 3, #2

In today’s report Arctic Sea Ice on the rise again, presently in the range of normal levels Antarctic Sea Ice is at slightly above normal levels Why is early satellite data for Arctic and Antarctic Ice extent referenced in the first IPCC report missing from today’s data? Is revisionism going on with the date of…

Arctic Death Spiral: no sale – the public isn’t buying

From the Carsey Institute: Americans’ Knowledge of Polar Regions Up, But Not Their Concern Environmental Issues in Polar Regions Are Polarizing DURHAM, N.H. – Americans’ knowledge of facts about the polar regions of the globe has increased since 2006, but this increase in knowledge has not translated into more concern about changing polar environments, according…

Steig et al, revisited with UAH satellite data

From World Climate Report: Antarctic Temperature Trends Almost exactly two years ago, a prominent paper became a media darling as it, according to the alarmist website Real Climate “appeared to reverse the ‘Antarctic cooling’ meme that has been a staple of disinformation efforts for a while now.” The Nature paper, by Eric Steig and colleagues,…