Most of the Recent Warming Could be Natural

This story broke while Anthony and I were eclipse hunting. ~ctm From Jennifer Marohasy By jennifer on August 21, 2017 in Information AFTER deconstructing 2,000-year old proxy-temperature series back to their most basic components, and then rebuilding them using the latest big data techniques, John Abbot and I show what global temperatures might have done in…

Climate Science Double-Speak

A Quick Note from Kip Hansen   A quick note for the amusement of the bored but curious. While in search of something else, I ran across this enlightening page from the folks at UCAR/NCAR [The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/The National Center for Atmospheric Research — see pdf here for more information]: “What is…

Why Climate Models Run Hot

by Rud Istvan,   EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW rests on just three propositions: 1. CO2 is a ‘greenhouse’ gas retarding radiative cooling. This should not be in serious dispute since Tyndall experimentally proved…

Why "Climate Science" Snubs Climatic Temperature

Guest essay by Leo Goldstein When something pretending to be a science cannot adequately define a quantity for its central subject, this something is inarguably a pseudo-science. This is certainly the case in the self-professed “climate science.” It proposes the hypothesis of a dangerously warming climate, but does it define a meaningful climatic temperature that…

A public service announcement on temperature

Dog owners, this might surprise you. Since we deal with temperature a great deal here on WUWT, and since the only canine member of the Union of Concerned Scientists has informed me that he is concerned about this issue, and since we are getting into the hot season here in the northern hemisphere, I thought…

Global temperatures are heading downward, and fast

It’s no surprise to us that the “monster” El Niño of 2015/2016 created a very large global temperature spike, after all, that’s what the natural process that creates the phenomenon results in due to the Pacific ocean near the Equator not being able to dissipate heat to space as effectively as it usually does. NOAA…

Polar Puzzle (Now Includes August Data)

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts Image Credit: Ken’s Kingdom Image Credit: RSS As can be seen in the above graphs, the south polar region has been cooling for the whole satellite record. The cooling is not statistically significant, however over the complete time span of the satellite record of almost…

Approximately 92% (or 99%) of USHCN surface temperature data consists of estimated values

An analysis of the U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN) shows that only about 8%-1% (depending on the stage of processing) of the data survives in the climate record as unaltered/estimated data. Guest essay by John Goetz A previous post showed that the adjustment models applied to the GHCN data produce estimated values for  approximately 66% of…

Problematic Adjustments And Divergences (Now Includes June Data)

Guest Post by Professor Robert Brown of Duke University and Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts: Image Credit: Steven Goddard As can be seen from the graphic above, there is a strong correlation between carbon dioxide increases and adjustments to the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) temperature record. And these adjustments to the surface…

Impact of “Pause-Buster” Adjustment on GISS Monthly Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes: Image Credit and a special thanks to Josh With GISS incorporating NOAA/NCEI “Pause-Buster” adjustments for their monthly anomalies as of June 2015 data, our friend Daft made another appearance. Also, I noticed that my temperature-tracking spreadsheet at home, and on Google Docs both needed to have their Y-axes extended, because…

Saturday satire – Hot spot or not?

Josh writes: It is good to see Christopher Booker writing about the UK’s ‘hottest day of the year’ in the Telegraph again. Paul Homewood’s excellent posts, on which his article is based, are well worth reading. The story on Paul’s blog starts here, with more here, and Booker’s first Telegraph article, followed by more doubts, some Met Office spin, then a belated response, comment moderation, and finally…

Is NOAA’s Hiatus Gone? (Now Includes May Data)

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts: The above are plots of what the slopes NOAA’s surface temperature anomalies look like for the three intervals 1975 to 2000; 1950 to 2000; and 2000 to 2015. The top one is before adjustments and the bottom one is after adjustments, seemingly in an attempt…

UAH, MSU, TLT, and other Acronyms

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The satellite-based atmospheric temperature dataset is one of the better datasets in climate science. Drs. Roy Spencer and John Christy have long been scientific heroes of mine because of the quality of their work in the creation, analysis, corrections, and curation of the dataset.  It is kept at the University…

Progress on the problems with Australia’s ACORN-SAT surface air temperature records

Dr David R.B. Stockwell writes, Progress on the surface temperature front as follows: Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment Bob Baldwin established a Technical Advisory Forum comprised of leading scientists and statisticians to review  and provide advice on Australia’s official temperature data set in January following recommendations by an independent peer review. The Forum’s report has been…

Temperature and TOA Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing. TOA forcing is the imbalance between the TOA upwelling and downwelling radiation. The CERES satellite dataset contains observations of the TOA radiation imbalance on a gridcell-by-gridcell basis. It is calculated as the downwelling solar radiation for that month by gridcell, minus…

Le Chatelier And Climate Change (Now Includes March Data)

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts: Lubos Motl has an excellent article entitled: “Le Chatelier’s principle and nature’s adaptation” If this topic interests you, I would highly recommend that you read it. “Le Châtelier’s principle can be stated as: When a system at equilibrium is subjected to change in concentration, temperature, volume, or pressure,…

The Icebox Heats Up

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, either it’s a genetic defect or I’m just a glutton for punishment, but I’m going to delve some more into the ice ages. This is a followup to my previous post, Into and Out Of The Icebox. Let me start by looking at the cycles in the insolation and…

Into and Out of the Icebox

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Inspired by a random comment by Steve McIntyre over at his marvelous blog Climate Audit, I got to thinking about the ice ages. I’ve long heard that the ice ages are caused by the changes in summer insolation in the northern hemisphere. As the story goes, the Milankovitch cycles of…

Buoy Temperatures, First Cut

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As many folks know, I’m a fan of good clear detailed data. I’ve been eyeing the buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) for a while. This is the data collected by a large number of buoys moored offshore all around the coast of the US. I like…

All 50 states have below freezing temperatures

Meteorologist Tim Buckley of WFMY-TV writes on Facebook: All 50 states have low temperatures BELOW freezing tonight. (Monday night) Yes, even Hawaii. Tall mountain peaks there regularly get below freezing, and even get snow. This typically happens a few times during winter, but is very rare this early in the season. Pretty neat! The low…

USHCN Monthly Temperature Adjustments

Guest Essay By Walter Dnes There have been a number of posts on USHCN temperature adjustments, including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. They have focused primarily on annual adjustments. Whilst looking into the USHCN adjustments, I noticed that each of the 12 months is adjusted differently. Here is a plot of average USHCN temperature adjustments, for each month…

GISS is Unique (Now Includes May Data)

Guest Essay By Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts In comparing GISS with the other five data sets that I comment on, some of the points I raise below overlap, and others could be added. However, and in no particular order, the following are some things that I have come up with on why…

GISS Hockey-Stick Adjustments

Guest Post By Walter Dnes: There have been various comments recently about GISS’ “dancing data”, and it just so happens that as GISS data is updated monthly, I’ve been downloading it monthly since 2008. In addition, I’ve captured some older versions via “The Wayback Machine“. Between those 2 sources, I have 94 monthly downloads between…