Finding: North Pacific climate patterns influence El Nino occurrences

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES and the “tail wagging the dog” department. For decades, the world’s leading scientists have observed the phenomena known as El Nino and La Nina. Both significantly impact the global climate and both pose a puzzle to scientists since they’re not completely understood. Now, a new study…

Solar Cycles and the Equatorial Trough: An Alternate Conceptual Model

by Michael Wallace, Hydrologist I have offered to write this guest essay to reflect recent talks I’ve presented to water resource professionals on hydroclimatology and Solar cycles. As an academic and hydrologic forecaster, I have followed an energy centric, reproducible data path to quantify correlations between solar cycles and atmospheric moisture patterns. I have anchored…

Study finds: Middle atmosphere temperature in sync with the ocean PDO

Relationship between decadal variations in temperatures in the Pacific and the tropopause identified From the HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL (GEOMAR) Water plays a major role for our planet not only in its liquid form at the surface. In the atmosphere too, it considerably affects our lives as well as weather and climate. Clouds and…

Has the PDO flipped?

Guest post by David Middleton Cyclical changes in the Pacific Ocean have thrown earth’s surface into what may be an unprecedented warming spurt, following a global warming slowdown that lasted about 15 years. While El Niño is being blamed for an outbreak of floods, storms and unseasonable temperatures across the planet, a much slower-moving cycle…

The journal Nature embraces ‘the pause’ and ocean cycles as the cause, Trenberth still betting his heat will show up

From the “settled science” department. It seems even Dr. Kevin Trenberth is now admitting to the cyclic influences of the AMO and PDO on global climate. Neither “carbon” nor “carbon dioxide” is mentioned in this article that cites Trenberth as saying: “The 1997 to ’98 El Niño event was a trigger for the changes in the…

California’s new toilet police

Last Thursday in my local newspaper The Chico Enterprise-Record there was an editorial about saving water through bureaucracy: Editorial: Toilet police don’t want job. It was was of those “only in California” type things about a new law with good intentions, but eye rolling implementation that only policy wonks could dream up. I agreed with…

Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive

Trenberth and Fasullo published a paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” last week in the new online journal Earth’s Future. Judith Curry briefly introduced the paper in her December 7, 2013 post Week in review (Thanks, Judith.) From the last sentence of the abstract, Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) argues that: Global warming has not…

New study shows Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature drive US tornado strength

From the University of Missouri-Columbia, one more example of how natural variation has trumped the supposed forcing of CO2 to make ‘bad weather’. Pacific ocean temperature influences tornado activity in US, MU study finds COLUMBIA, Mo. – Meteorologists often use information about warm and cold fronts to determine whether a tornado will occur in a…

Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles

This paper suggests that the CMIP5 models’ (which IPCC relies upon) predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly overestimated by about a factor of two. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future Petr Chylek •    Manvendra K. Dubey • Glen…

Climate change is dominated by the water cycle, not carbon dioxide

Guest essay by Steve Goreham Originally published in The Washington Times Climate scientists are obsessed with carbon dioxide. The newly released Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that “radiative forcing” from human-emitted CO2 is the leading driver of climate change. Carbon dioxide is blamed for everything from causing more…

Unwarranted Temperature Adjustments and Al Gore’s Unwarranted Call for Intellectual Tyranny

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University For researchers like myself examining the effect of local microclimates on the ecology of local wildlife, the change in the global average is an absolutely useless measure. Although it is wise to think globally, wildlife only responds to local climate…

On Muller et al (2013) “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”

I received an email yesterday morning advising me that Muller et al (2013) had been published. (Thanks, Marc.) The title of the paper is “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”. The abstract is here and a preprint version of the paper is available from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature website here. The primary…

Decadal Oscillations Of The Pacific Kind

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The recent post here on WUWT about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a lot of folks claiming that the PDO is useful for predicting the future of the climate … I don’t think so myself, and this post is about why I don’t think the PDO predicts the climate…

The Shifts Hypothesis – an alternative view of global climate change

Guest post by Pavel Belolipetsky The IPCC, Bob Tisdale and others have presented hypotheses to explain 20th century warming. This article presents another. My co-workers and I call it the “Shifts” hypothesis. And we consider it to have advantages over other hypotheses in terms of simplicity, consistency over time, and homogeneity for the two considered…

Coralline Algae and the Case for Natural Climate Change

Guest post by Jim Steele Director Sierra Nevada Field Campus, emeritus, San Francisco State University There was a very revealing 2012 paper demonstrating the power and interconnections of natural ocean oscillations, “Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Climate”. If you have ever played in the tide pools, you may have noticed the…

Cooling in the near future?

Global Cooling – Climate and Weather Forecasting. Guest post by Dr. Norman Page Introduction. Over the last 10 years or so as new data have accumulated the general trend and likely future course of  climate change has become reasonably clear. The earth is entering a cooling phase which is likely to last about 30 years and possibly…

More data fiddling – this time in NOAA’s ENSO data

Plot below showing ONI -vs- Aqua Channel 5 Temperature from lukewarmplanet (not Tisdale) to illustrate what he is talking about in his upcoming book. – Anthony Comments on NOAA’s Recent Changes to the Oceanic NINO Index (ONI) Guest post by Bob Tisdale As many of you are aware, I’m writing another book. The working title is…

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 and January 21st, 2012, I have been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables…

The Ridiculousness Continues – Climate Complexity Compiled

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments on this thread and several others documented within, I’ve been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables in order to build a conceptual map of Earth’s climate system. The goals of this exercise include; To gain a bigger…

Yet Even More Discussions About The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION I’ve written numerous posts that describe the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), what the PDO represents, and, just as important, what it does not represent. For those new to the PDO and for those needing a refresher, refer to An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 3An Introduction…

New WUWT Oceanic Oscillation Page – With Link Tutorial

Introducing WUWT’s newest addition, the Oceanic Oscillation Page, which includes graphs and graphics,on Oceanic Oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/La Niña and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). It was a struggle to find content for this page, particularly the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), so if you have any suggested additional content for…

Interannual Terrestrial Oscillations

There’s a saying, “timing is everything”. After reading this, I think it is more true than ever. In other news. Paul Vaughn is giving Bob Tisdale serious competition in the contest over who can fit the most graphs into a single blog post. ☺ There is a helpful glossary of symbols and abbreviation at the…

Nenana 2011 Ice Classic result

In case you missed it, the official result for 2011 is in: The Tanana River officially broke up on May 4, 2011 at 4:24 PM and here’s the clock Here’s the context of the date in comparison with all of the others since 1917. (I calculated this to be day 124.683 in 2011, please check)

Stockwell asks: Is the Atmosphere Still Warming?

Guest post by Dr. David Stockwell I suspect that the only really convincing evidence against global warming is a sustained period of no global warming or cooling — climate sensitivity and feedbacks are too esoteric. I have followed the recent global temperature with some excitement, and started to prepare a follow up to a previous…

Update And Changes To NODC Ocean Heat Content Data

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, As noted in the post October 2010 Update to NODC Ocean Heat Content Data, the National Oceanographic Data Center has updated itsOCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) data. This is the dataset based on the Levitus et al (2009) paper “Global ocean heat content(1955-2008) in light of recent instrumentation problems”, Geophysical Research Letters. Refer…

The North Pacific & Solar Cycle Change

Guest post by Paul Vaughan, M.Sc. Awhile back I drew attention to temporal patterns shared by the <i>rate of change</i> of solar cycle length (SCL’) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). (See here.) Correspondence I received later alerted me to the existence of fairly widespread misunderstandings about fundamental differences between the following:

Connecting ENSO, PDV, and the North and South Pacific

A new paper in Geophysical Research Letters was brought to my attention by Dr. Leif  Svalgaard. Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability by Jeremy D. Shakun and Jeffrey Shaman makes some very interesting findings suggesting that both the northern and southern Pacific Ocean has evidence of the Pacific Decadal Variation PDV being…

California Wildfires caused by cooler Pacific, La Niña

California’s Fires Result of a Cooling Pacific, Two Years of La Niña and Environmental Mismanagement Guest Post By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP While environmentalists and clueless politicans like CA Representative Linda Sanchez and not surprisingly Climate Progress’ Joe Romm sought to place the blame for the California wildfires on ‘global warming’. the massive California wildfires…

Study: Ocean net heat flow is connected with climate shifts – CO2 not correlated – no “warming in the pipeline”

Related to this story: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Time Series from the University of Washington, seen below. Emphasis points mine. h/t to WUWT reader Richard Heg. – Anthony Monthly Values for the PDO Index, January 1900 to September 2008. Positive (red) index values indicate a warm phase PDO; negative (blue) index values indicate a cool…