Topsy-turvy climate science: ‘Global Warming Hiatus’ blamed for more intense hurricanes

From the UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA and the “but. but, warming is the cause of more intense hurricanes” comes this interesting study. La Niña-like ocean cooling patterns intensify northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones Another piece in the climate puzzle The intensity and frequency of strong tropical cyclones, as well as cyclone landfalls, has increased in recent…

Proof that the recent slowdown is statistically significant (correcting for autocorrelation)

Guest essay by Sheldon Walker Introduction In my last article I attempted to present evidence that the recent slowdown was statistically significant (at the 99% confidence level). Some people raised objections to my results, because my regressions did not account for autocorrelation in the data. In response to these objections, I have repeated my analysis…

Proof that the recent global warming slowdown is statistically significant (at the 99% confidence level)

Guest analysis by Sheldon Walker NOTE: An update to this article is here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/17/proof-that-the-recent-slowdown-is-statistically-significant-correcting-for-autocorrelation/ Introduction In this article I will present convincing evidence that the recent slowdown was statistically significant (at the 99% confidence level). I will describe the method that I used in detail, so that other people can duplicate my results. By definition,…

Another paper confirms “the pause” in global warming – cites issues with methods of obtaining average temperature

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature Chunlüe Zhou & Kaicun Wang Abstract Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations…

How They airbrushed out the Inconvenient Pause

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In November 2015, just before the faithful gathered around their capering, gibbering witch-doctors and shamans in Paris for the New Superstition’s annual festival of thanks and praise, hugs and back-slapping, the Inconvenient Pause lengthened to 18 years 9 months. One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution…

China Met Office Confirms Global Warming Hiatus

From The GWPF Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has recently developed a new global monthly land-surface air temperature data set called CMA GLSAT. Using it researchers from the administration reanalysed the change in global annual mean land-surface air temperature during three time periods (1901–2014, 1979–2014 and 1998–2014) to see…

Study by Mann: admits ‘the pause’ in global warming was not predictable, but lets models off the hook

From AGU EOS —Terri Cook, Freelance Writer Was the Recent Slowdown in Surface Warming Predictable? The temporary deceleration in warming across the Northern Hemisphere earlier this century could not have been foreseen by statistical forecasting methods, a new study concludes. SOURCE: Geophysical Research Letters From the early 2000s to the early 2010s, there was a temporary…

The Pause hangs on by its fingernails

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires…

Pause Buster SST Data: Has NOAA Adjusted Away a Relationship between NMAT and SST that the Consensus of CMIP5 Climate Models Indicate Should Exist?

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale In this post, we’re going to discuss one of the three adjustments with the greatest impacts on the new NOAA “pause buster” sea surface temperature dataset. That is, I’m going to discuss and illustrate that NOAA based one of their recent adjustments (the adjustment with the greatest impact during the…

Dissent in the climate ranks over Karl’s “pause buster” temperature data tweaking

WUWT readers may recall that on June 4th, 2015, WUWT published a scathing criticism of the paper by Karl et al (“Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus”) that purported to erase the pause in the surface temperature record by applying some highly questionable, and apparently desperate  adjustments to SST…

There’s life in the old Pause yet

Still no global warming at all for 18 years 8 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley To the growing embarrassment of the world-government wannabes who are preparing to meet in Paris next month to inflict upon the world a Solomon Binding treaty that will, in all but name, create an all-powerful global tyranny-by-clerk for the…

The latest head in the sand excuse from climate science: the global warming pause ‘never happened’

From the “fighting denial with denial” department comes this desperate ploy and press release written to snare headlines with gullible media. Meanwhile, just a couple of days ago the UK Met office said the global warming pause may continue. Global warming ‘hiatus’ never happened, Stanford scientists say A new study reveals that the evidence for…

UK MET: Global warming pause may continue

Guest essay by Eric Worrall h/t The Register – the UK MET Office has published a report which suggests the pause in global temperatures might continue for many years to come. Or the pause might not continue. They’re not really sure. According to The UK MET (talking about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); Despite these signals…

The Pause lengthens yet again

A new record Pause length: no warming for 18 years 8 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since January 1997. Yet for 224 months since then there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). With this month’s RSS temperature record,…

Yet Even More Nonsense from Grant Foster (Tamino) et al. on the Bias Adjustments in the New NOAA Pause-Buster Sea Surface Temperature Dataset

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale UPDATE: It was pointed out in a comment that the model-data comparison in the post was skewed. I was comparing modeled marine air temperature minus modeled sea surface temperature anomalies to observed night marine air temperature minus sea surface temperature anomalies. Close, but not quite the same. I’ve crossed out…

Nieves et al. – Another excuse for ‘the pause’: Redistribution of Heat in Oceans

New Paper Calls into Question Reanalysis-Based and Climate Model-Based Explanations for the Slowdown in Global Surface Warming Guest Post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION The topic of this post is the paper Nieves et al. (2015) Recent hiatus caused by decadal shift in Indo-Pacific heating, which was embargoed until 2PM eastern today. The abstract reads (my…

Despite attempts to erase it globally, “the pause” still exists in pristine US surface temperature data

As readers know, the recent paper Karl et al. 2015, written by the head of the National Climatic Data Center now NCEI, went to great lengths to try to erase “the pause” from the surface temperature record using a series of adjustments. Those adjustments are deemed unacceptable and criticized by some climate scientists, such as…

El Niño strengthens: the Pause lengthens

Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 6 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley For 222 months, since December 1996, there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – still unaffected by a slowly strengthening el Niño, which will eventually cause temporary warming – passes another six-month milestone,…

Uh, oh: Looks like Lewandowsky and Oreskes will be going after the AGU now for admitting the ‘hiatus’ exists

Given Lew and Oreskes latest admonition to scientists who use the word “pause” or “hiatus” it looks like they’ll be applying the “D” word to the entire AGU community of scientists any minute now. From the AGU website, EOS: Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is…

El Niño or ñot, the Pause lengthens again

Global temperature update: no warming for 18 years 4 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Since December 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS temperature – so far unaffected by the most persistent el Niño conditions of the present rather attenuated cycle – shows a new record length…

Laughable modeling study claims: in the middle of ‘the pause’, ‘climate is starting to change faster’

From the models are better than reality department and the DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory comes this ludicrous eye-roller. Reality -vs- models, from: 90 climate model projectons versus reality The climate is starting to change faster The speed with which temperatures change will continue to increase over the next several decades, intensifying the impacts of climate…

Another Couple of Notes about Michael Mann’s “Faux Pause” Post and Steinman et al. 2015

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale We discussed Steinman et al. (2015) and Michael Mann’s post about it at RealClimate in the article On Steinman et al. (2015) – Michael Mann and Company Redefine Multidecadal Variability And Wind Up Illustrating Climate Model Failings. This brief post adds to that discussion. THE PAUSE, HIATUS, SLOWDOWN (WHATEVER) IN GLOBAL…

New Paper Confirms the Hiatus Is Not Occurring at the Poles, Undermining the Efforts of Cowtan and Way

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale Pierre Gosselin of NoTrickZone reports on a paper that confirms the slowdown in global surface warming has not been occurring at the poles. See Pierre’s post German Experts: New Paper By Gleisner Shows 2013 Cowtan And Way Arctic Data Hole Paper Was A Lemon. You’ll recall that Cowtan and Way…

The Great Pause lengthens again

Global temperature update: the Pause is now 18 years 3 months By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). This month’s RSS [1] temperature plot pushes up the period without any global warming from 18 years 2 months to 18 years 3 months. Figure 1.…