NOAA says La Niña in the Pacific is over

Adios, La Niña by Rebecca Lindsey, NOAA  The La Niña event that overtook the tropical Pacific this past winter is officially over, according to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. La Niña’s signatureof heavier-than-usual rainfall in the western part of the basin has tapered off, and the cool surface waters in the central part of the basin…

The 60-year oscillation revisited

Guest Post by Javier It is a well-known feature of climate change that since 1850 multiple climate datasets present a ~ 60-year oscillation. I recently wrote about it in the 7th chapter of my Nature Unbound series. This oscillation is present in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific…

Finding: North Pacific climate patterns influence El Nino occurrences

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES and the “tail wagging the dog” department. For decades, the world’s leading scientists have observed the phenomena known as El Nino and La Nina. Both significantly impact the global climate and both pose a puzzle to scientists since they’re not completely understood. Now, a new study…

Some overheated rhetoric from Jonathan Overpeck

From the UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA and the “El Nino is just a heat vent for greenhouse gases” department. Record jump in 2014-2016 global temperatures largest since 1900 Heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions and stored in the Pacific Ocean was released by the 2015-2016 El Niño, University of Arizona geoscientists found. Global surface temperatures surged…

New mechanism for El Nino enhanced storm systems

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES New mechanism to explain how El Niño influences East Asian and WN Pacific climate Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC, or referred to as Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone) is the most important anomalous circulation pattern connecting El Niño and East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon. WNPAC begins…

NOAA: La Niña is officially back

November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back! Author:  Emily Becker Well, it’s November, and the CPC/IRI ENSO forecast is declaring the presence of La Niña conditions! I could just link to my November 2016 post and head home for the day… but that would be no fun! There’s about a 65-75% chance that La Niña…

Report: Ocean Cycles, Not Humans, May Be Behind Most Observed Climate Change

An eminent atmospheric scientist says that natural cycles may be largely responsible for climate changes seen in recent decades.  In a new report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, Anastasios Tsonis, emeritus distinguished professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, describes new and cutting-edge research into natural climatic cycles, including the well known…

El Niño WATCH cancelled; ENSO neutral likely for 2017

From the “now the warmest year on record hopes are dashed” department: Via Bloomberg: All eight climate models surveyed by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology suggest tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain neutral for the second half, it said on its website on Tuesday. That reverses a June 6 report that showed four models predicting temperatures…

Do over: The 1997/98 Super El Niño via latest computer animation

From the UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES Extraordinary animation reveals ocean’s role in El Niños Ocean model data generated by Australia’s most powerful supercomputer, Raijin, shows 97/98 El Nino unfolding Sydney, Australia: Australian researchers from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science have produced a remarkable high-resolution…

Quicky October 2016 ENSO Update

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies from NOAA Are Approaching the Threshold of a Moderately Strong La Niña.  Australia’s Southern Oscillation Index from BOM is in La Niña values.  And NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO Index is Still in ENSO Neutral Territory. NOAA’S WEEKLY NINO3.4 REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES   NOAA’s…

Claim: ‘greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries’

From the UCLA Newsroom: Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries Warming forces have caused millennia of dryness in California’s prehistory, and greenhouses gases could do the same Clues from prehistoric droughts and arid periods in California show that today’s increasing greenhouse gas levels could lock the state into drought…

NASA predicts a ‘return to normal’ in ENSO conditions

After Strong El Niño Winter, NASA Model Sees Return to Normal Not too hot, not too cold – instead, water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean should be just around normal for the rest of 2016, according to forecasts from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, or GMAO. With these neutral conditions, scientists with the…

NOAA Cancels La Niña Watch While La Niña Conditions Exist

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale La Niña conditions are typically defined by NOAA as sea surface temperature anomalies less than or equal to -0.5 deg C for the NINO3.4 region of the east/central equatorial Pacific. The NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly for the week of August 31, 2016 from NOAA’s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices…

New research shows that California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack will likely not recover from the current drought until 2019

By Lauren Lipuma, Contributing Writer, EOS The unprecedented drought that has gripped the Southwest United States has severely depleted the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the major source of water for drinking and farming in California. Researchers and water managers thought this past winter’s monster El Niño would bring enough rainfall to help ease the strain on water…

Say Hello to La Niña Conditions

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale A quick ENSO update. Meteorological agencies like NOAA use the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) of the equatorial Pacific to determine if the tropical Pacific is experiencing El Niño, La Niña or ENSO neutral (not El Niño, not La Niña) conditions. Other agencies use the…

‘The Blob’ overshadows El Niño

Research identifies earlier ocean warming as dominant effect off West Coast From NOAA FISHERIES WEST COAST REGION El Niño exerted powerful effects around the globe in the last year, eroding California beaches; driving drought in northern South America, Africa and Asia; and bringing record rain to the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southern South America. In…

El Niño could drive intense season for Amazon fires

From NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the “just watch, they’ll blame climate change anyway” department comes this forecast: The long-lasting effects of El Niño are projected to cause an intense fire season in the Amazon, according to the 2016 seasonal fire forecast from scientists at NASA and the University of California, Irvine. El Niño…

Global temperatures are heading downward, and fast

It’s no surprise to us that the “monster” El Niño of 2015/2016 created a very large global temperature spike, after all, that’s what the natural process that creates the phenomenon results in due to the Pacific ocean near the Equator not being able to dissipate heat to space as effectively as it usually does. NOAA…

El Niño made a nuisance of itself in 2015

From NOAA HEADQUARTERS Record ‘nuisance flooding’ in many US cities tied to Pacific weather pattern The frequency of nuisance tidal flooding in many U.S. cities increased as predicted for the 2015 meteorological year, from May 2015 to April 2016, according to a new NOAA report. In some cities, the days of nuisance flooding exceeded trends…

Bombshell study: past El Niño’s ‘may have amplified global climate fluctuations for hundreds of years at a time’

From AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY How El Niño impacts global temperatures El Niño oscillations in the Pacific Ocean may have amplified global climate fluctuations for hundreds of years at a time Scientists have found past El Niño oscillations in the Pacific Ocean may have amplified global climate fluctuations for hundreds of years at a time. The team…

May 2016 ENSO Update – The 2015/16 El Niño Has Reached Its End

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of the 2014-15 El Niño Series and for the 2015/16 El Niño series. INTRODUCTION In the recent post Say Good-Bye to the 2015/16 El Niño, we illustrated and discussed how the weekly sea surface temperature…

Say Goodbye to the 2015/16 El Niño

Plus a Few Freebees at the End of the Post Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific are bordered by the coordinates of 5S-5N, 170W-120W.  They are used by NOAA and other meteorological agencies to define when an El Niño event is taking place. …

The cause of a record warm El Niño year? Leftovers

From AGU: Leftover warm water in Pacific Ocean fueled massive El Niño WASHINGTON, DC — A new study provides insight into how the current El Niño, one of the strongest on record, formed in the Pacific Ocean. The new research finds easterly winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean stalled a potential El Niño in 2014…

CEEMD and Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been investigating the use of the “complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition” (CEEMD) analysis method, which I discussed in a previous post entitled Noise-Assisted Data Analysis. One of the big insights leading to modern signal analysis was the brilliant idea of Joseph Fourier. He realized that any given waveform can…

La Niña and a Cooler Earth May Be Coming Faster Than Predicted

Our WUWT ENSO meter in the right sidebar has ticked down twice in the last week, and the most important 3-4 region of the Pacific monitored for ENSO conditions looks like it is in freefall: In their weekly discussion posted Monday, April 6th, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had this to say: During the last four weeks, equatorial…

How Much Of Global Temperature Increase Is Due To El Niño?

Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball Bob Tisdale wrote an “April Fools” article about the extreme nature of the 1998 El Niño. It was clever and humorous, but also fulfills Shakespeare’s observation that, “Jesters do oft prove prophets.” It is widely accepted that global temperature rose in 1998, and the rise is attributed to El Niño.…

Study: Ocean temps predict US heat waves 50 days out

Pacific pattern often forms in advance of hot days in eastern US From the NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH/UNIVERSITY CORPORATION FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH BOULDER — The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern…