Symmetry and Balance

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The CERES satellite dataset is a never-ending source of amazement and interest. I got to thinking about how much energy is actually stoking the immense climate engine. Of course, virtually all the energy comes from the sun. (There is a bit of geothermal, but it’s much less than a watt…

Game over

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Skeptics 1, Fanatics 0. That’s the final score. The corrected mid-range estimate of Charney sensitivity, which is equilibrium sensitivity to doubled CO2 in the air, is less than half of the official mid-range estimates that have prevailed in the past four decades. Transient sensitivity of 1.25 K and Charney sensitivity…

The DIY Climate Sensitivity Toolkit

Guest disalarmism by David Middleton Do you ever watch the DIY Network?  The TV network where they have all the “Do It Yourself” home improvement shows?  I don’t watch it because I can’t do anything like that myself.  If a home improvement or repair project is much beyond duct tape and bungee cords, I’m on…

Claim: Climate sensitivity narrowed to 2.8°C

From the University of Exeter, comes this statistical prediction that doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of press, and rightly so. Read on. Future Climate Change Revealed by Current Climate Variations Uncertainty surrounding the extent of future climate change could be dramatically reduced by studying year-on-year global temperature fluctuations, new research has shown. A…

Delta T and Delta F

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The fundamental and to me incorrect assumption at the core of the modern view of climate is that changes in temperature are a linear function of changes in forcing. Forcing is defined as the net downwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). According to this theory, in order…

Where The Temperature Rules The Sun

I’ve held for a long time that there is a regulatory mechanism in the tropics that keeps the earth’s temperature within very narrow bounds on average (e.g. ± 0.3°C over the 20th Century). This mechanism is the timing and amount of the daily emergence of the cumulus cloud field, and the timing and emergence of…

A Consensus Of Convenience

We publish this here, not to confirm that it is correct, but to stimulate the debate needed to determine whether or not it is correct or if it’s simply an exercise in curve fitting. ~ctm George White, August 2017 Climate science is the most controversial science of the modern era. A reason why the controversy…

Temperature and Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Dr. Curry’s excellent website, she’s discussing the Red and Blue Team approach. If I ran the zoo and could re-examine the climate question, I’d want to look at what I see as the central misunderstanding in the current theory of climate. This is the mistaken idea that changes…

Evaporation Redux

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking again about the question of evaporation and rainfall. I wrote about it here a few years ago. Short version—when the earth’s surface gets warmer, we get more evaporation and thus more rainfall. Since what comes down must go up, we can use the Tropical Rainfall Measuring…

Estimating Cloud Feedback Using CERES Data

.Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As usual, Dr. Judith Curry’s Week In Review – Science Edition contains interesting studies. I took a look at one entitled “Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models“, by Ceppi et al., hereinafter Ceppi2017. The paper looks at the changes in the radiative effects of clouds. From…

Yale study tries to prop up shrinking climate sensitivity

From Yale News: Climate models have underestimated Earth’s sensitivity to CO2 changes, study finds A Yale University study says global climate models have significantly underestimated how much the Earth’s surface temperature will rise if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as expected. Yale scientists looked at a number of global climate projections and found that…

A ground-breaking new paper putting climate models to the test yields an unexpected result – steps and pauses in the climate signal

A ground-breaking new paper has recently been published  in Earth System Dynamics that really turns the idea of direct linear warming of the atmosphere on it’s ear, suggesting a “store and release mechanism” by the oceans, which explains why there seemed to be a shift in global temperature during the 1997/98 super El Nino followed…

Physical Constraints on the Climate Sensitivity

Guest essay by George White For matter that’s absorbing and emitting energy, the emissions consequential to its temperature can be calculated exactly using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, 1) P = εσT4 where P is the emissions in W/m2, T is the temperature of the emitting matter in degrees Kelvin, σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant whose value…

Leading climate scientist Cess admits mathematical errors in the AGW theory

Guest essay by Kyoji Kimoto Dr. Robert D. Cess led the following Intercomparison Projects of GCMs for the IPCC Assessment Reports. 1989: Interpretation of Cloud-Climate Feedback as Produced by 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models. 1990: Intercomparison and Interpretation of Climate Feedback Processes in 19 Atmospheric General Circulation Models. 1991: Interpretation of Snow-Climate Feedback as Produced…

Effective Radiation Level (ERL) Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Lord Monckton has initiated an interesting discussion of the effective radiation level. Such discussions are of value to me because they strike off ideas of things to investigate … so again I go wandering through the data. Let me define a couple terms I’ll use. “Radiation temperature” is the temperature…

Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming – part 3

Part III: How the feedback factor f was exaggerated By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In this series (Part 1 and Part 2) I am exploring the cumulative errors, large and small, through which the climatological establishment has succeeded in greatly exaggerating climate sensitivity. Since the series concerns itself chiefly with equilibrium sensitivity, time-dependencies, including those…

Cloud Feedback

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments to Christopher Monckton’s latest post, Nick Stokes drew attention to Soden and Held’s analysis of feedback in the climate models. I reproduce their Table 1 below: Figure 1. Soden and Held’s Table 1, showing all of the feedback parameters calculated from the models. I found several amazing things in…

Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming–part 2

Part II: How the central estimate of pre-feedback warming was exaggerated By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In this series I am exploring the cumulative errors, large and small, through which the climatological establishment has succeeded in greatly exaggerating climate sensitivity. Since the series concerns itself chiefly with equilibrium sensitivity, time-dependencies, including those arising from non-linear…

Willis and I walk the Planck

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I do apologize for not having replied sooner to my friend the irrepressible, irascible, highly improbable but always fascinating Willis Eschenbach, who on August 15 had commented on a brace of earlier postings by me on the vexed question of climate sensitivity. The delay is because my lovely wife and…

Putting It On The Line

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Thanks to an alert commenter, half of my last post was shown to be in error. Like most folks, I really, really hate to be publicly wrong, and of course I do my utmost to avoid it. But sometimes I overlook something, or my logical staircase is missing some steps,…

Pre- and Post-Feedback Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE TWO: Rather than trying to cooper up the errors, I have simply removed the incorrect sections and left the calculation of the Planck feedback intact. I think that it is right … however, as events remind me too frequently … I could be wrong … ] [UPDATE: As Jan Kjetil Andersen…

Introducing the global-warming exaggeration factor X

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Recently I provided – based on a characteristically interesting email from Roger Taguchi – a demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity. In this follow-up piece, will you please welcome the global-warming exaggeration factor X. First, a breathless recap on my summary of Roger’s argument.…

Claim: GHG’s have us committed to greater than 1.5°C

High chance that current atmospheric GHGs commit to warmings greater than 1.5C over land From the CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY & HYDROLOGY Current levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations already commit the planet to air temperatures over many land regions being eventually warmed by greater than 1.5°C, according to new research published today (27 July 2016) in…

Hemispheric Ocean Temperature Sensitivity

Guest Post By Willis Eschenbach Often I start off by looking at one thing, and I wind up getting side-tractored merrily down some indistinct overgrown jungle path. I was thinking about the difference in the strength of the sunshine between the apogee aphelion, which is when the Earth is furthest from the sun in July, and…

The Climate Alarm Death Knell Sounds Again

By PAUL C. “CHIP” KNAPPENBERGER and PATRICK J. MICHAELS Currently, details are few, but apparently the results of a major scientific study on the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds are going to have large implications for climate change projections—substantially lowering future temperature rise expectations. In a blog post from the Department of Meteorology of…

Appraising Marvel et al.: Implications of forcing efficacies for climate sensitivity estimates

Guest essay by Nicholas Lewis Summary – Different agents may have effects on global temperature (GMST) different to those which would be expected simply by reference to the radiative forcing they exert. This difference is encapsulated in the term “forcing efficacy”. In their recent paper, Marvel et al. estimate efficacies for various forcings from climate simulations…

Study from Marvel and Schmidt: Examination of Earth’s recent history key to predicting global temperatures

From NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER Estimates of future global temperatures based on recent observations must account for the differing characteristics of each important driver of recent climate change, according to a new NASA study published Dec. 14 in the journal Nature Climate Change. To quantify climate change, researchers need to know the Transient Climate Response (TCR)…

Antarctic Refrigerator Effect, Climate Sensitivity & Déformation professionnelle: Lessons from Past Climate Change – Part 2

Guest essay by Jim Steele Reference link: Déformation professionnelle Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism For the past 55 million years the global surface temperature has declined by more than 10°C from a “hot house” condition into an “ice house”…

Wrong Again, Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach One of the best parts of new tools is new discoveries. So the tools to calculate the heat constants of the ocean and land as described in my last post, Lags and Leads, reveal unknown things to me. A while back I wrote a post called “Wrong Again”, about a crucial…

Lags and Leads

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about thermal lags in the climate system. Everyone is familiar with thermal lag in everyday life. When you put a cast-iron pan on the stove flame, it doesn’t heat up instantly. Instead, the warming process starts instantly, but it takes some amount of time to actually up…

2°C or not 2°C–that is the question

This note by The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley uses methods and data exclusively from mainstream climate science to constrain the interval of 21st-century global warming. In 2009 the Copenhagen climate summit asserted, on little evidence, that global warming of 2 C° compared with pre-industrial temperature [equivalent to 1.1 C° above today] would be dangerous. The…

I only ask because I want to know

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I propose to raise a question about the Earth’s energy budget that has perplexed me for some years. Since further evidence in relation to my long-standing question is to hand, it is worth asking for answers from the expert community at WUWT. A.E. Housman, in his immortal parody of the…

Climate Insensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been wanting to [take] another look at the relationship between net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation changes on the one hand and changes in temperature on the other. As a necessary prelude, I finally have gotten round to an oft-postponed task, that of looking at the thermal lag in different areas…