GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index Vs GHCN

Guest analysis by Mark Fife This is the state of the world’s surface temperatures according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies from 1880 through 2017. It is indeed a very bleak picture. As I see it, this is showing an exponential rise in temperatures starting at the beginning of the 20th century. Of course,…

Global Temperature Update for April, 2018

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2018 was +0.21 deg. C, down a little from the March value of +0.24 deg. C: Some regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 16 months are: YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC…

A Look at the Shape of Temperature Change Over Time

Guest essay by Mark Fife There are many times, when dealing with the analysis of real world data, looking at the average alone really doesn’t provide a complete picture of what is happening. Such is my problem with describing what the data contained in the GHCN data represents. If you look at the typical NOAA,…

An interesting plot twist – call it an anomaly

We’ve covered this topic before, but it is always good to mention in again. Howard Goodall asks this on Twitter: “Ever wondered why climate scientists use anomalies instead of temperatures? 100 years of catastrophic warming in central England has the answer.” He provides a link to the Central England Temperature data at the Met Office…

UAH finds a warming error in satellite data, lowers “tropical hotspot” temperature trend, contradicts IPCC models

From the University of Alabama, Huntsville via email from Dr. John Christy. Weather Satellite Wanders Through Time, Space, Causing Stray Warming to Contaminate Data In the late 1990s, the NOAA-14 weather satellite went wandering through time and space, apparently changing the record of Earth’s climate as it went. Designed for an orbit synchronized with the…

Global Temperature Report: March 2018

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade March temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.24 C (about 0.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Northern Hemisphere: +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Southern Hemisphere: +0.10 C (about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Tropics:…

UAH Global Temperature Report: February 2018

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade February temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for February. Northern Hemisphere: +0.24 C (about 0.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for February. Southern Hemisphere: +0.15 C (about 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for February. Tropics:…

DO-IT-YOURSELF TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION

Guest essay by Dr Michael Chase SCOPE This article describes a simple but effective procedure for regional average temperature reconstruction, a procedure that you, yes you dear reader, can fully understand and, if you have some elementary programming skills, can implement. To aid readability, and to avoid the risk of getting it wrong, no attempt is…

Why 2017’s “Third Warmest Year on Record” is a Yawner

Guest essay by E. Calvin Beisner The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) press release headline January 18 was blunt: “NOAA: 2017 was 3rd warmest year on record for the globe.” The tagline that followed made the inference obligatory for all climate alarmists: “NOAA, NASA scientists confirm Earth’s long-term warming trend continues” (emphasis added). The New York Times trumpeted, “2017 Was…

Fake News and 2017 Near-Record Temperatures

Guest essay by Dale Leuck “Fake news” is the process of misleading the public through an inaccurate or incomplete depiction of reality, either deliberately or unintentionally. Often the fake news involves the use of statistics, particularly graphic illustrations of complex processes, as discussed in a February 2017 Forbes article. Such has long been the case…

NASA – 2017 was 2nd warmest year, NOAA says 3rd warmest, El Niño a major warming influence

From NASA Goddard: Earth’s global surface temperatures in 2017 ranked as the second warmest since 1880, according to an analysis by NASA. Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, globally averaged temperatures in 2017 were 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.90 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for…

UAH: 2017 was third warmest year in satellite record

From the University of Alabama, Huntsville. Global Temperature Report: December 2017 Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.41 C (about 0.74 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December. Northern Hemisphere: +0.50 C (about 0.90 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December. Southern Hemisphere: +0.33…

Global Temperature Report: November 2017

From UAH and Dr. John Christy Global temperatures drop; November still warm Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade November temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.36 C (about 0.65 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for November. Northern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for November. Southern Hemisphere:…

Besting the BEST surface temperature record

Guest essay by Patrick J. Michaels and Ryan Maue, Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute JRA-55—BETTER THAN THE BEST GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE HISTORY, AND COOLER THAN THE REST. Let’s face it, global surface temperature histories measured by thermometers are a mess. Recording stations come on-and offline seemingly at random. The time of day when…

Analysis says NOAA global temperature data ‘doesn’t constitute a “smoking gun” for global warming’

Mikhail Voloshin writes this detailed analysis of NOAA and GISTEMP climate data  processing on his Facebook page: Random Walk analysis of NOAA global temperature anomaly data Summary The global temperature record doesn’t demonstrate an upward trend. It doesn’t demonstrate a lack of upward trend either. Temperature readings today are about 0.75°C higher than they were when…

Ooops! Australian BoM climate readings may be invalid due to lack of calibration

Dr Jennifer Marohasy writes by email: There is evidence to suggest that the last 20 years of temperature readings taken by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, from hundreds of automatic weather stations spread across Australia, may be invalid. Why?  Because they have not been recorded consistent with calibration. Somewhat desperate to prove me wrong, late yesterday…

Global Temperature Report: August 2017

From UAH: Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.13 C per decade August temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.41 C (about 0.74 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August. Northern Hemisphere: +0.40 C (about 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August. Southern Hemisphere: +0.41 C (about 0.74 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for…

What is the Default Temperature for the Earth?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball The Earth’s atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse. The analogy was partially developed to help students understand the apparent disparity between energy coming in from the sun and leaving the Earth to space. However, its greater value was in creating the global warming deception because it automatically triggered thoughts…

NOAA Updates Sea Surface Temperature Dataset

From NOAA Key dataset helps scientists understand Earth’s climate An update to a set of widely used ocean temperature data is now available from NOAA’s NCEI. Along with the public release, an article describing the 5th version of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSSTv5) dataset has been published in the Journal of Climate (link…

The Laws of Averages: Part 1, Fruit Salad

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen This essay is long-ish — and is best saved for a time when you have time to read it in its entirety.  It will be worth the wait and the eventual effort.  It comes in three sections:  a Primer on Averages, a general discussion of Fruit Salad metrics, and a…

Global temperatures plunge in April – “the pause” returns

Global temperatures have dropped 0.5° Celsius in April according to Dr. Ryan Maue. In the Northern Hemisphere they plunged a massive 1°C . As the record 2015/16 El Nino levels off, the global warming hiatus aka “the pause” is back with a vengeance. He writes: Some good news to end April, global temperature anomaly has fallen to only +0.1°C today…

Global Temperature Report: March 2017

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade March temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.19 C (about 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Northern Hemisphere: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Southern Hemisphere: +0.07 C (about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March. Tropics:…

March 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my March projections, as well as last month’s projections for February, to see how well they fared. Data Set Projected Actual Delta HadCRUT4 2017/02 +0.817 (incomplete data) HadCRUT4 2017/03 +0.817 (incomplete data) GISS 2017/02 +1.02 +1.10 +0.08 GISS 2017/03 +1.03…

UAH Global Temperature Report: February 2017 warmest in 39 years

February 2017 Global Temperature Report – Contiguous U.S. has warmest February in past 39 Years Notes on data released March 2, 2017: The 2015-16 El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event has faded into history, but the globe still saw its fourth warmest February in the satellite global temperature record, including the warmest February in that time…

January 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my February projections, as well as last month’s projections for January, to see how well they fared. Data Set Projected Actual Delta HadCRUT4 2017/01 +0.736 HadCRUT4 2017/02 +0.817 (incomplete data) GISS 2017/01 +0.95 +0.92 -0.03 GISS 2017/02 +1.02 UAHv6 2017/01…

Global Temperature Report: January 2017

Tropics cool in January; globe doesn’t Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade January temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January. Northern Hemisphere: +0.27 C (about 0.49 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for January. Southern Hemisphere: +0.33 C (about 0.59 degrees Fahrenheit)…

January 2017 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my January projections, as well as last month’s projections for December, to see how well they fared. Data Set Projected Actual Delta HadCRUT4 2016/12 +0.648 +0.592 -0.056 HadCRUT4 2017/01 +0.736 GISS 2016/12 +0.83 +0.81 -0.02 GISS 2017/01 +0.95 UAHv6 2016/12…

What do three CET reference weather stations used by the Met Office have in common?

Guest essay by Tom Barr Central England Temperature stations, long considered a benchmark, have been affected by land use change and urbanisation The answer is blindingly obvious, from above: they are all subject to considerable modern local urbanisation immediately to the North, including heated greenhouses designed to replicate a Mediterranean climate. The Met Office relies…

2016 edges 1998 as warmest year in satellite record – by 0.02°C

Global Temperature Report: December 2016 Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade December temperatures (preliminary) Global composite temp.: +0.24 C (about 0.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December. Northern Hemisphere: +0.19 C (about 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for December. Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C (about 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit) above…

December 2016 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my December projections, as well as last month’s projections for November, to see how well they fared. Data Set Projected Actual Delta HadCRUT4 2016/11 +0.786 (incomplete data) +0.524 -0.262 HadCRUT4 2016/12 +0.648 GISS 2016/11 +0.95 +0.95 +0.00 GISS 2016/12 +0.83…

How SkepticalScience views global warming – one way only

Guest essay by Sheldon Walker Most people have probably seen the SkepticalScience graph called “The Escalator”. If you haven’t seen it yet, then you can view it here: Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47 SkepticalScience claims that “Contrarians” inappropriately “cherrypick” short time periods that show a cooling trend. But SkepticalScience uses a linear regression over the full date range (1970…

November 2016 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my November projections, as well as last month’s projections for October, to see how well they fared. Data Set Projected Actual Delta HadCRUT4 2016/10 +0.729 HadCRUT4 2016/11 +0.786 (incomplete data) GISS 2016/10 +0.87 +0.89 +0.02 GISS 2016/11 +0.95 UAHv6 2016/10…