Projects
This describes some of the many projects that I’m currently working on in weather, climate, electronics, and multimedia.
Project: www.surfacestations.org
This project, started on June 4th 2007, is designed for the express purpose of photographically surveying every one of the 1221 USHCN weather stations in the USA which are used as a “high quality network” to determine near surface temperature trends in the USA. USHCN is a subset of the larger COOP network of stations in the USA, of which there are about 9000. The USHCN subset has been hand picked by the National Climatic Data Center to be more regionally representative due to their placement, length of service and minimum station moves. Unfortunately, the network has fallen into neglect, and the temperature data produced by it is suspect due to microsite biases. See what has been learned so far here in this slide show.
You can help in this project by signing up and doing site survey in your area. It’s free, and open to anyone with basic observational skills, a digital camera, GPS, and ability to follow written directions. Check the Master List of surveys to see locations and what is available.
Project: Stevenson Screen Paint Experiment
This was actually the very first project I started, but has been given second priority now due to what has been learned about the siting issues of instrumentation with the USHCN network. The experiment continues with a 4 channel NIST certified data logger and probes and is now approaching it’s 3rd month of continuous data logging (as of 10/22/07). The premise is that since Stevenson Screens were originally specified to be painted with whitewash (CaCO3), and were changed to semi gloss latex (TiTO2) around 1979 that there is a different response to visible and IR wavelengths. A preliminary test of wood slats confirmed that there is a radiation response differential, as shown in this graph.
Project: UHI Transects
Under development. An experimental hands on response to Parker’s claim (which was not hands on, but rather a data mining from far less than ideal station sites) that UHI does not exist. A trial run is being made in Indianapolis, IN in the first half of November 2007 to test the equipment and work out any bugs. Once that test is complete, the methodology will be published so that anyone can do this experiment and publish the result. An online database of UHI transect data will be developed for use by the scientific community.
Hi Anthony, I miss having a real weatherman in Chico. My husband and I are/were professional artists, and we liked you. My husband had quite a bit of telescope equipment, for a couple different telescopes. He is deceased, now, and no one seems to have the time to tell me what to do with this stuff or what it is worth to sell. I would donate it to a non-profit org , locally, if there is one that is official and could use it. My brother builds telescopes and is a night sky fanatic, but he is in S. CA.
Wow to those who wait for the wrath of whatever god Gore believes in, who shall deem to punish those with a warm Hell, who fail to show proper fear for the new popular religion of global warming. Those who refuse to buy expensive putt putt cars in bright, adolescent colors,shall suffer, I am sure!
Please let me know if you know a good place to donate that is also a tax write-off.
Thank you! June Carey
HI June,
For your telescope maybe local highshool would be interested by the equipment. They would perhaps interest a few kids in science or astronomy.
Parker’s claim was sneakier than that.
Dear Anthony,
I am after some long term US temperature records, 200 years plus if possible. Can you tell me where I could get one or more such records?
Thanking you in advance,
David Archibald
[...] this case, you can see the Stevenson Screen paint experiment. For those unfamiliar with the screens, they are those white ‘weather’ screens you [...]
I think that urban heat islands are real. My observation involves the outside temperature sensor on my car’s climate control system. It updates quickly, and I have noted that it tends to go up a degree or two when I drive from my home in the suburbs 12 miles to my work in downtown Little Rock. My car is fairly new, so I haven’t had it during the summer months yet, but so far, it’s been consistent.
Tony,
you might find interesting the following new study about UHI:
Montávez, Juan Pedro, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, and Francisco Valero, 2008. A simple model for estimating the maximum intensity of nocturnal urban heat Island. International Journal of Climatology Vol. 28, No 2, pp. 235-242, February 2008
Abstract
Several studies have tried to determine the empirical relationships between the maximum urban heat island (UHI) intensity and factors such as the city size taking the number of inhabitants as indicator, the geometry of the city (i.e. the H/W ratio), meteorological factors, etc. On the other hand, numerical models have also been formulated to understand the main factors contributing to the formation of UHI.
In this work, a set of empirical equations for determining the maximum of the UHI is presented. The equations have been fitted to the output results of a set of experiments performed by a canyon model (Montávez et al., [2000a]), investigating the main factors contributing to the nocturnal UHI. The input parameters are the thermal inertia of rural and urban materials, the H/W ratio and the increase in long-wave sky radiation due in part to pollution over cities. The results obtained are able to reproduce most of UHI intensity maxima around the world.
All the best
Timo
Just a quick question
Since 1970 weather forecasts appear to have become more reliable.
The predicted overnight lows are fairly accurate, I presume there are tables/curves that are used to predict based on temperature, humidity, cloud cover, wind speed and direction etc.
The question is do you know if the weather models have been changed to reflect the buildup of CO2, was this an adjustment to the tables/curves or an add-on adjustment. What if any was the magnitude of the adjustment? I think the answer would help define the magnitude of AGW.
Thank you for providing a great informational service with your website and investigational articles. I signed on to inspect some monitoring sites and expect to get to do so as soon as the snow levels receed here in western CO. In the 80’s I set up a temp. monitoring system with a couple of dozen thermocouples, taking readings every five minutes 24/7 for certain aspects of an IC photolithography process. I ran the database through SQC (Deming) models for graphical display allowing instantaneous deterimation re: being in statistical control or not for any given time. What might be of interest to you is a simple calibration method that produced a simple linear regression calibration offset for each thermocouple. I was monitoring at 0.1 degrees F accuracy, using water melting and boiling temperatures as the calibration points.
REPLY: Thanks, I tried to get Cheesman reservoir last August, but ran out of daylight. That one is well away from development, and I’m hoping you can get it maybe this summer.
A very quick glance at your commentary and graphs indicates to me that you are putting the science first ! This is so critical in a politically charged time when lots of people cannot even agree on basic facts.
I suspect that the current excursion seems to be a large but normal swing in a system where both small and large swings in temperature happen all the time. The sunspot curve shows nothing to be alarmed about yet. I have been trying to find some actual graphs on this issue and the ones on your site were the first I found. We should keep close watch on this, until the current cycle shows that it is a normal one. Since we only have a single record of a Maunder Minimum, we have no idea of how often they happen, and how much of an effect on global temperatures they have.
I am a participant in the Space Solar Power Architecture Study, (SBSPAS) which aims to put Space Solar Power forward to the public and media as a real energy choice, one which has a huge capacity. We believe the best place for solar collectors is in Geosynchronous Orbit (the same place as Communication Sats.)
I have been following the energy issue for 35 years, and see that there are two kinds of greens: ideological and pragmatic. The ideological ones have been opposed to effective and economical energy solutions for the last 35 years. This includes Fission, Wind, and Space Solar. (Note that currently, space solar is not yet economical due to astronomically high launch costs, but that is the result of politics and big aerospace companies who want to continue to have taxpayers pay for expensive throw-away rockets.)
Global Warming or not, we cannot manufacture a new and “clean” energy system if we dismantle the existing industrial and energy infrastructure. Information about Space Solar is available at the National Space Society’s site: nss.org and the Space Frontier Foundation’s site.
You might comment on how small changes in the system create the large swings seen in the graphs. I have also had trouble in trying to print out the enlarged version of the graphs. Even in landscape mode, only about the left half of each graph is being printed.
Any suggestions?
John
Anthony, what does the extra ‘T’ in TiTO2 mean? I thought one of the major ingredients in latex was titanium dioxide (TiO2). I’m not all that ‘up’ on paints but I’m fairly sure there are no single ‘T’ chemical symbols. Is TiTO2 a typo or is the ‘T’ an abbreviation for some common name?
REPLY: It’s a typo, extra character. Thanks for pointing it out. I’ll fix it on the next publish.
Question.
If the urban heat island effect is real as I believe it is and that this effect accounts for about half of the temperature increase seen by the ground stations, when will this effect reach saturation, could this have already occurred.
At the start of the 20th century most weather stations were rural and amateur, over the years many of those rural stations have been closed and the majority of the remainder have slowly become urban due to development around them.
Have these mainly urban stations now swamped the few remaining rural stations making the temperature input from the rural stations negligible.
If this is the case could it mean that the UHI effect from say 1998 when temperatures leveled and off and the majority of the stations became urban will not upwards bias any future temperature readings other than making them about 0.4 degrees higher than they actually should be.
REPLY: That’s an interesting idea. But there’s also increased energy use/waste heat to factor in at a city.
One aspect of this whole business of CO2 buildup from human activities that I have not seen mentioned in any blogs is the effect on plant growth rates. In a small book called “Global Warming–a Guide to the Sciences” by four different authors, (available from Amazon) there are data (mainly from Japanese research) showing that growth rates of several different plants and trees respond linearly to increases in carbon dioxide. So at some level, the human-generated carbon dioxide would presumably be completely offset by the increase in plant uptake (if we don’t cut down all the rain forests, etc.) Presumably, eons ago, this is how the fossil fuels were formed in the first place. Why is it that I don’t see any discussion of this offset?
Anthony
You might be interested in A conversation with Janis Dickinson about citizen science
http://blog.jonudell.net/2008/05/05/a-conversation-with-janis-dickinson-about-citizen-science/
I appreciate your scientific approach and avoidance of the rhetoric around the climate change issue, though I wish you would give less space to rhetoric-spouting legislators (the Rohrbacher entry) and position-paper news items and more space to the science. Thanks for an interesting and informative blog. - Tim (www.timprosserfuturing.wordpress.com)
did you know that the weather can change peoples moods? i know it can change mine, but i didnt think much of it til i came across this ebook that has a point of view i had never heard of How the Weather Changed History its pretty interesting
Anthony,
For those of us who comment on several strings and don’t have much of a memory and who are interested in what other people have said on the various strings, it would be nice if we could click on a name and see all their comments.
Plus I have to admit, I like to see my own brilliant remarks occasionally and see if anyone has replied to them.
But please, this is just a minor request. Please keep healthy sir, we love ya.
REPLY: WordPress hosts this site, so I don’t have programming control.
Anthony,
I’m not the brightest bulb in the world but I am free. If you need any grunt work I am available. About my only skill I have that I can see you using is Excel. I’m a pretty good Excel geek.
Anthony,
I thought you would be interested in this historical archive. If you know it already I apologize.
http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/brs/nwind24.htm
BJV