January 2008 - 4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months

January 2008 was an exceptional month for our planet, with a significant cooling, especially since January 2007 started out well above normal.

January 2008 capped a 12 month period of global temperature drops on all of the major well respected indicators. I have reported in the past two weeks that HadCRUT, RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year.

Also see the recent post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics - 3 of four show a flat trendline.

Here are the 4 major temperature metrics compared top to bottom, with the most recently released at the top:

UK’s Hadley Climate Research Unit Temperature anomaly (HadCRUT) Dr. Phil Jones:
Reference: above data is HadCRUT3 column 2 which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Dr. James Hansen:
Reference: GISS dataset temperature index data

University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH) Dr. John Christy:
Reference: UAH lower troposphere data

Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA (RSS):
Reference: RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.1)

The purpose of this summary is to make it easy for everyone to compare the last 4 postings I’ve made on this subject.

I realize that not all the graphs are of the same scale, so my next task will be to run a combined graphic of all the data-sets on identical amplitude and time scales to show the agreements or differences such a graph would illustrate.

UPDATE: that comparison has been done here

Here is a quick comparison and average of ∆T for all metrics shown above:

Source:	Global ∆T °C
HadCRUT	- 0.595
GISS	- 0.750
UAH	- 0.588
RSS	- 0.629
Average:	- 0.6405°C

For all four metrics the global average ∆T for January 2007 to January 2008 is: - 0.6405°C

This represents an average between the two lower troposphere satellite metrics (RSS and UAH) and the two land-ocean metrics (GISS and HadCRUT). While some may argue that they are not compatible data-sets, since they are derived by different methods (Satellite -Microwave Sounder Unit and direct surface temperature measurements) I would argue that the average of these four metrics is a measure of temperature, nearest where we live, the surface and near surface atmosphere.

UPDATE AND CAVEAT:

The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:

“Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it’s the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.”

I wish to state for the record, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”

There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, it is large, it is unexpected, but it does not “erase” anything. I suggested a correction to DailyTech and they have graciously complied.

UPDATE #2 see this post from Dr. John R. Christy on the issue.

UPDATE #3 see the post on what the last 10 years looks like with the same four metrics - 3 of four show a flat trendline. 

Another Global Temp Index Dives in Jan08, this time HadCRUT

The global surface temperature anomaly data from the UK Hadley Climate Research Unit (Temp anomaly is plotted below) has just been released, and it shows a significant drop in the global temperature anomaly in January 2008, to just 0.034°C, just slightly above zero.

This caps a full year of temperature drop from HadCRUT’s January 2007 value of 0.632°C

above data is HadCRUT3 column 2 which can be found here
description of the HadCRUT3 data file columns is here

The ∆T for the past 12 months is minus 0.595°C which is in line with other respected global temperature metrics that I have reported on in the past two weeks. RSS, UAH, and GISS global temperature sets all show sharp drops in the last year. We are in an extended solar minimum, we have a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to a cold state, and we are seeing arctic ice extents setting new records and rebounding from the summer melt.While weather is defined as such variability, the fact that so many things are in agreement on a global scale in such a short time span of one year should give us all pause for consideration.

UPDATE: see all 4 global temperature indexes compared in this next post

Decaying spy sat shoot-down may coincide with Wednesday’s lunar eclipse

Two big things will/may happen in space Wednesday. A total lunar eclipse visible over much of the United States that evening, and a possible attempt by the NAVY to shoot down the defunct spy satellite USA193.

“Lacrosse” radar spy satellite, the “old” model that USA193 was to replace.

The “new” but failed USA193 satellite may look similar to this commercial radarsat2

On February 14th, the US military announced that they have plans to shoot the USA193 satellite down with a missile, “to reduce the danger to human beings”. This gives a new twist to the story.

Official sources say there is about 450 kg of hydrazine fuel (a very toxic rocket fuel) on board, and expect 1100 kg (about one ton) of debris of the satellite itself might reach earth’s surface intact.

It occurs to me that the bigger concern might not be hydrazine, but that some sensitive equipment deep inside the bus sized USA193 spy satellite might survive the re-entry, and fall into the wrong hands. The poisonous hydrazine makes a good cover excuse, but I’ll point out there have been other rocket boosters that have come down with hydrazine in them and there was no urgency to intervene then.

From Wikipedia: Hydrazine is highly toxic and dangerously unstable, especially in the anhydrous form. Symptoms of acute exposure to high levels of hydrazine in humans may include irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat, dizziness, headache, nausea, pulmonary edema, seizures, coma, and it can also damage the liver, kidneys, and central nervous system. The liquid is corrosive and may produce dermatitis from skin contact in humans and animals. Effects to the lungs, liver, spleen, and thyroid have been reported in animals chronically exposed to hydrazine via inhalation. Increased incidences of lung, nasal cavity, and liver tumors have been observed in rodents exposed to hydrazine.

The plan is to intercept the satellite using one or more SM-3 intercept missiles fired from naval vessels in the North Pacific. The SM-3 missiles need to be modified for this task as they normally target object at lower altitude on a ballistic trajectory instead of a true orbit.

At left, a launch of an SM-3 from the Navy AEGIS cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70) on April 27th, 2007 in first dual missle test of its kind.

On Feb 18th Ted Molczan has drawn attention to a NOTAM, (NOtice To Air Men) issued by the FAA, that might point to a possible ASAT shoot-down attempt on USA-193 on Feb 20th, at 3:30GMT/UTC (Feb 21st by UTC) which would be about 7:30PM Pacific Standard Time Wednesday evening.

Here is the NOTAM:

PHZH   HONOLULU CONTROL FACILITY02/062 (A0038/0 - AIRSPACE CARF NR. 90 ON EVELYN STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHINAN AREA BNDD BY 3145N 17012W 2824N 16642W 2352N 16317W 1909N 16129W 1241N 16129W1239N 16532W 1842N 17057W 2031N 17230W 2703N 17206W SFC-UNL. 21 FEB 02:30 2008UNTIL 21 FEB 05:00 2008. CREATED: 18 FEB 12:51 2008

The NOTAM excludes an area just west of Hawaii over which USA 193 will pass near the time above (see below map, showing USA 193’s approximate position at 7:30 PM PST Wednesday evening, Feb 20th (Feb 21st 3:30 UTC):

(click map to enlarge)

This would put the shoot-down right in the middle of the Wednesday lunar eclipse.

If they do attempt it then, they’ll certainly have a lot of eyes, cameras, and telescopes out with the lunar eclipse, so it will either be a spectacular success (with lots of pictures) or a spectacular failure (with lots of pictures).

(h/t) SatTrackCam Leiden