A New Paper on California Climate Variability

Today I obtained the paper: LaDochy, S., R. Medina, and W. Patzert. 2007. Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33, 159-169 You can download the paper in PDF format in its entirety here: ca_climate_variability_ladochy.pdf

I’ll post more on this paper later, but I wanted to make it available for everyone to read beforehand.

This paper references my good friend and colleague, Jim Goodridge, former California State Climatologist in its bibliography. As you may recall, I posted on Jim’s work here a couple of months ago. One of the maps that Jim has prepared, seen below, closely matches the mapped results from the LaDochy et al paper.

A good year for CO2 in 2006

Just released: new DOE figures showing that the US has reduced CO2 production 1.5% last year in 2006, even without the US signing on to Kyoto.  You can read the full report here (Adobe PDF file).

 Here are some of the numbers for 2006:

• Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 were 1.5 percent below the 2005 total—the first annual drop since 2001 and only the third since 1990.

• The total emissions reduction, from 7,181.4 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2005 to 7,075.6 MMTCO2e in 2006, was largely a result of reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. There were smaller reductions in emissions of methane (CH4) and man-made gases with high global warming potentials (high-GWP gases)

• U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 were 110.6 million metric tons (MMT) below their 2005 level of 6,045.0 MMT, due to favorable weather conditions; higher energy prices; a decline in the carbon intensity of electric power generation that resulted from increased use of natural gas, the least carbon intensive fossil fuel; and greater reliance on non-fossil energy sources.

Despite my stance on the measurement and interpretation errors associated with the surface temperature record, I’ve always felt that reducing pollution is a good thing. At the same time I’ve always felt that our environmental movement is too often focused on panic driven ideas.

Coupled with the news about the 2007 hurricane season being very low in my post below, I believe we’ve seen evidence that things aren’t all they are claimed to be, particularly by Gore. I think the best approach overall is to not panic, and to work on alternate energy solutions and better efficiency as a way to wean ourselves from foreign oil. The key here is slow change. It took us 100 years to get to this point, it will probably take us at least half that to reverse the trends in a sensible way with new technology.

2007 Hurricane Season ends quietly

November 30th marks the official end of hurricane season. Below is some good news, courtesy of Ryan Maue at Florida State University COAPS :

The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season did not meet the hyperactive expectations of the storm pontificators. This is good news, just like it was last year. With the breathless media coverage prior to the 2006 and 2007 seasons predicting a catastrophic swarm of hurricanes potentially enhanced by global warming a la Katrina, there is currently plenty of twisting in the wind to explain away the hyperbolic projections. The predominant refrain mentions something about “being lucky” and having “escaped” the storms, and “just wait for next year”.

Before we prepare for the obvious impending onslaught of the next “above-average” hurricane season, let’s review some very positive aspects of what 2007 offered:

• The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season was below-normal and tied for 2002 as the most inactive since the El Nino depressed 1997 season in terms of storm energy. Note: Hurricane Energy is measured through the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index
• The North Atlantic was not the only ocean that experienced quiet tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has to go back to 1977 to find lower levels of cyclone energy as measured by the ACE hurricane energy metric. Even more astounding, 2007 will be the 4th slowest year in the past half-century (since 195 .
• Fewest Northern Hemisphere Hurricane Days since 1977. 3rd Lowest since 1958 (behind 1977 and 1973). See the Hurricane Days Graphic below.
• When combined, the 2006 and 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons are the least active since 1993 and 1994. When compared with the active period of 1995-2005 average, 2006 and 2007 hurricane energy was less than half of that previous 10 year average. The most recent active period of Atlantic hurricane activity began in 1995, but has been decidedly less active during the previous two seasons.
  When combined, the Eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, which typically play opposite tunes when it comes to yearly activity (b/c of El Nino), brushed climatology aside and together managed the lowest output since 1977. In fact, the average lifespan of the 2007 Atlantic storms was the shortest since 1977 at just over two days. This means that the storms were weak and short-lived, with a few obvious exceptions.

Hurricane Days by Year

2007 Departure from ACE and Climatic norms:

Basin	Current ACE	Climo ACE	% Departure
Northern Hemisphere	373.4	525.2	-28.9%
North Atlantic	67.7	93.8	-27.8%
Western Pacific	209.2	286.8	-27.1%
Eastern Pacific	52.2	131.2	-60.2%